Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar index rose to 97.3, ending a two-session decline after Powell’s dovish comments.

Gold stabilizes near $3,760, supported by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve comments.

Oil rises as US inventories fall and talks to resume Kurdistan exports stall.

NATO pledges a strong response to Russian airspace violations, heightening the risk.

Bitcoin continues its losses, trading below $114,000 with a potential test of $110,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,772

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,779.55, targeting 3,788.58 and then 3,796.74.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,764.22, targeting 3,754.78 and then 3,745.68.

Comment: Gold is on a short-term uptrend, but its proximity to strong resistance at 3,780 could determine today’s course, whether to continue the rally or begin a correction.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 63.42

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 63.764, targeting 64.124 and then 64.472.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability below 62.861, targeting 62.502 and then 62.072.

Comment: Oil is trying to stabilize above 63, and the next moves are linked to a break of the 62.85 or 63.76 areas.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish sideways
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1789

Scenario 1: Buy the euro with a breakout and stability above 1.18196, targeting 1.18457 and then 1.18664.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.17773, targeting 1.17599 and then 1.17397.

Comment: The euro is trading near the moving averages, and today’s movement depends on establishing a clear direction between 1.1777 as support and 1.1820 as resistance.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3499

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and stability above 1.35206, targeting 1.35333 and then 1.35532.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a break and hold below 1.34865, targeting 1.34667 and then 1.34477.

Comment: The pound is in a narrow range, but the overall trend is still bearish unless it breaks 1.3520.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 24,889

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,924, targeting 25,043 and then 25,151.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,767 with target at 24,662 then 24,554.

Comment: The Nasdaq recovers after a strong correction, and stability above 24,900 restores strong upward momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United States: US President Trump’s Speech – 02:20

United States: New Home Sales (August) – 5:00 PM

US: Crude Oil Inventory – 17:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 97.3 on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone regarding the path to interest rate cuts. Powell emphasized that the economy is in a “difficult situation” amid the risks of rapid inflation and weak jobs, indicating that rate cuts would be gradual and subject to review “meeting by meeting.”

In contrast, Stephen Meeran continued to criticize current policy, warning that hesitating to take further steps could harm the labor market. Despite this, markets are still pricing in two additional interest rate cuts this year.

Gold held steady near $3,760 an ounce, maintaining its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. NATO’s statements regarding Russian violations of Estonia’s airspace heightened concerns, along with the ongoing war in Ukraine and Middle East tensions.

In the oil market, West Texas Intermediate crude rose to around $64 and Brent to $67 after data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a decline in inventories of about 3.8 million barrels, the largest in seven weeks. Risks also increased due to stalled talks to resume Kurdistan exports and NATO’s pledge to respond to Russia, while Ukraine continues its attacks on Russian infrastructure.

Bitcoin continued its decline, trading below $114,000 amid increasing selling pressure. It is attempting to cut its losses but faces key support at $110,500, which it may test if risk appetite in the markets continues to weaken.