Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar index rose to 97.3, ending a two-session decline after Powell’s dovish comments.

Gold stabilizes near $3,760, supported by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve comments.

Oil rises as US inventories fall and talks to resume Kurdistan exports stall.

NATO pledges a strong response to Russian airspace violations, heightening the risk.

Bitcoin continues its losses, trading below $114,000 with a potential test of $110,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish after a strong upward wave
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,746

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,752.39, targeting 3,760.38 and then 3,768.55.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and stability below 3,736.02, targeting 3,726.58 and then 3,717.49.

Comment: Gold has rebounded from a low of approximately 3,725, and any break above the 3,752 resistance could open the way for a corrective upward wave.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Bullish Corrective
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 64.60

First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 64.93, targeting 65.29 and then 65.64.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and stability below 64.03, targeting 63.67 and then 63.24.

Comment: Oil maintains its trading above 64.00, and stability above this level may enhance the chances of a return to 65.00.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1749

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.17662, targeting 1.17716 and then 1.17931.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.17248, targeting 1.17073 and then 1.16872.

Comment: The euro is under clear downward pressure, and any failure to return above 1.1770 will maintain the negative outlook.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3459

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and hold above 1.34741, targeting 1.34911 and then 1.35110.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a breakout and hold below 1.34443, targeting 1.34244 and then 1.34055.

Comment: The pound is trading at an important support area; a break of 1.3475 could change the short-term trend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish corrective
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 24,751

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,832.39, targeting 24,966.25 and then 25,073.75.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 24,689.75, targeting 24,585.00 and then 24,477.00.

Comment: The Nasdaq is under selling pressure after a failed break above 25,000, but a rebound above 24,830 could restore upward momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Switzerland: National Bank Interest Rate Decision – 10:30

Switzerland: National Bank Press Conference – 11:00

United States: GDP (QoQ) – 15:30

United States: Unemployment Claims Rate – 15:30

United States: Existing Home Sales (August) – 5:00 PM

United States: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet – 23:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held above 97.8 on Thursday after a strong rally in the previous session, as investors awaited key data on the labor market and inflation to determine the Fed’s next course of action.

Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed clear caution, emphasizing the difficulty of balancing high inflation and weak jobs. Markets remain divided, with some expecting two additional 25 basis point cuts this year, while others see a more conservative approach or greater easing.

In contrast, new home sales in August reached their highest rate since 2022, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown and complicating expectations for interest rate cuts.

Gold retreated to $3,730 an ounce amid continued profit-taking, but retained its safe-haven appeal amid escalating geopolitical tensions. NATO issued a stern warning to Russia after it violated Estonian airspace, while US President Trump stated that Ukraine is capable of reclaiming all territories occupied by Russia, increasing market risks.

In the energy market, West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $65 a barrel and Brent crude to around $68 after a wave of profit-taking, although earlier gains were supported by declining US inventories. Tensions in Iraqi Kurdistan and the escalation of Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure continue to support prices, but oversupply concerns remain a drag.

Bitcoin continued its decline, trading below $113,800, with selling pressure that could push it to test the $110,500 support level if risk appetite remains weak.