Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar fell below 98.3 after Trump fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook amid concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Gold rises above $3,370 an ounce, hitting a two-week high amid political uncertainty.

Oil falls to $64.40 a barrel after strong gains in the previous session, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains under scrutiny.

Markets are pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.

Arkham reveals UAE government wallets containing approximately 6,300 Bitcoins.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3373.24

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 3382.43, targeting 3391.47 and then 3399.63.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3367.11, targeting 3357.66 and then 3348.57

Comment: Gold is trading in an ascending channel, and a breakout could boost buying momentum towards new highs.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 64.22

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 64.74, targeting 65.09 and then 65.44.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 63.83, targeting 63.47 and then 63.05.

Comment: Oil faces strong resistance at 64.70, and a breakout could open the way for a continued upward move.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.1616

Scenario 1: Sell the euro after breaking and holding below 1.1607, targeting 1.1590 and then 1.1570.

Alternative scenario: Buy on break and hold above 1.1650, targeting 1.1676 and then 1.1697

Comment: The euro is under strong selling pressure below the moving averages, and a break of support could further extend the decline.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.3451

Scenario 1: Sell the pound after breaking and holding below 1.3441, targeting 1.3422 and then 1.3403.

Alternative scenario: Buy on break and hold above 1.3471, targeting 1.3488 and then 1.3508

Comment: The pound is moving in a bearish range, and the 1.3440 area represents a turning point for the price action.

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NAS100

 

General trend: sideways, bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 23473

Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold above 23551, targeting 23670 and then 23778.

Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq on a break and hold below 23394, targeting 23289 and then 23181.

Comment: The Nasdaq is fluctuating near the moving averages, and a break above 23,550 will determine the strength of the upward move.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (August) – 17:00.

From Canada: Speech by Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada – 9:30 PM.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell below 98.3 on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session after US President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud allegations. The move raised market concerns about the central bank’s independence and increased the likelihood of a September interest rate cut, especially since Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to ease monetary policy.

Markets are currently pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next month, while investors await the Fed’s favorite inflation data, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, due out on Friday. Also in focus today are durable goods orders, the Case-Shiller home price index, the Richmond manufacturing index, and consumer confidence.

Gold rose above $3,370 an ounce, hitting a two-week high amid rising political risks and uncertain US monetary policy.

As for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell to $64.4 a barrel after strong gains in the previous session that sent prices to their highest levels in three weeks. Markets are closely monitoring developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine, particularly after Kyiv launched drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, along with Trump’s threat to impose new sanctions or tariffs on Moscow’s trading partners if progress in peace talks is not made within two weeks.

In the cryptocurrency market, Arkham revealed that government wallets in the UAE contain approximately 6,300 Bitcoin (BTC), a move that enhances transparency but draws attention to the scale of digital assets held by governments.