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Daily Analysis 26/09/2025

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines


The dollar holds above 98.4 ahead of the personal consumption expenditures data.

Gold falls to $3,740 an ounce as dollar strength weighs.

Oil is on track for its best week in three months, with Brent holding at $68 and WTI above $65.

Trump announces new tariffs including 100% on imported medicines and 30% on furniture.

Bitcoin continues its losses, trading below $112,500 with a potential test of the $108,500 support.


 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work


A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.


 

GOLD

 

General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,746

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,755, targeting 3,764 and then 3,772.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,736, targeting 3,730 and then 3,721.

Comment: Gold is moving within a narrow sideways channel, and any break above 3,755 could restore upward momentum.


 

CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Up
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 64.99

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 65.35, targeting 65.71 and then 66.06.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 64.45, targeting 64.09 and then 63.66.

Comment: Oil is supported by positive momentum and is close to important resistance at 65.35.



 

EURUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1674

Scenario 1: Buy the euro after a breakout and stability above 1.1703, targeting 1.1729 and then 1.1750.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.1661, targeting 1.1643 and then 1.1623.

Comment: The euro is in a temporary upward correction after the recent sharp decline, but the trend remains weak.


GBPUSD

 

General trend: Bearish
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3355

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and stability above 1.3369, targeting 1.3386 and then 1.3406.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a break and hold below 1.3339, targeting 1.3319 and then 1.3300.

Comment: The pound is consolidating after the recent collapse, and the 1.3369 resistance will determine the next direction.


 

NAS100

 

General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 24,653

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,703, targeting 24,822 and then 24,930.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,546, targeting 24,441 and then 24,333

Comment: The Nasdaq is attempting to recover after a sharp decline, but a failure at 24,703 will reignite selling pressure.


 

Economic Calendar

 


(Times are in GMT+3)




United States: Core PCE Price Index (MoM) – 15:30

United States: Core PCE Price Index (YoY) – 15:30

Canada: General Government Budget (July) – 6:00 PM


Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held above 98.4 on Friday after two straight sessions of gains, as investors awaited the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Thursday’s data strengthened the dollar:

Initial jobless claims fell 14,000 to 218,000, well below expectations, indicating that the labor market remains firm despite the overall slowdown.

Revised GDP showed annual growth of 3.8% in the second quarter, the fastest in two years, thanks to strong consumption.

These figures reduced the likelihood of a sharp rate cut, with market expectations for a rate cut in October declining to 85%, down from 90% previously. Bets for a total rate cut this year also declined from 43 to 39 basis points.

As for gold, it retreated to $3,740 per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and positive economic data. However, it remains supported by its safe-haven appeal amid escalating trade tensions after Trump announced new tariffs that will take effect in October.

In oil markets, West Texas Intermediate crude is on track for weekly gains of more than 4%, its strongest since June, as pressure on Russian exports continues due to Ukrainian attacks, while Brent prices stabilized around $68. Despite the gains, the return of some Kurdish supplies has revived concerns about a supply glut.

Bitcoin continued its decline, trading below $112,500, and may decline to test support at $108,500 if selling pressure continues.

 

 

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