Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar is trading near its weakest levels since early October, as expectations for interest rate cuts continue to weigh on the currency.

Gold is holding close to all-time highs, supported by elevated geopolitical uncertainty and sustained safe-haven inflows.

Crude oil is on course for its best weekly performance since October, driven by intensifying global tensions and concerns over supply disruptions.

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain momentum above the $90,000 threshold, amid rising concerns about a potential downturn in the crypto market.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Upward within a channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $4,513.33
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $4,525.73
Targets: $4,537.19, then $4,552.30
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below $4,498.86
Targets: $4,484.47, then $4,467.88
Note: Gold remains supported above the channel’s lower boundary; any pullback is considered corrective unless $4,484 is decisively broken.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $58.417
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $58.554
Targets: $58.913, then $59.261
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below $58.055
Targets: $57.696, then $57.265
Note: Oil is respecting its moving averages, and the current consolidation appears to be an accumulation phase before the continuation of the trend.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Upward with a corrective pullback
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.17737
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.17840
Targets: 1.18182, then 1.18389
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.17651
Targets: 1.17476, then 1.17275
Note: The correction is ongoing within the broader uptrend. A decisive break below 1.176 could signal an extension of the downside move.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Weak uptrend (corrective phase)
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34862
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35081
Targets: 1.35257, then 1.35456
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34790
Targets: 1.34591, then 1.34401
Note: The pair has broken short-term moving averages, but the overall uptrend remains intact as long as the price stays above 1.344.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,867.75
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,954.00
Targets: 26,073.50, then 26,181.00
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,819.88
Targets: 25,798.55, then 25,692.25
Note: The index is undergoing a mild corrective pullback after a strong rally. The overall trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above 25,798.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

There are no significant economic releases today due to the year-end holiday.

Fundamental Analysis

 

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The U.S. dollar held steady at 97.9 on Friday, remaining close to its lowest level since early October, as market participants continue to price in additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the year ahead.
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Although GDP data released earlier in the week came in strong, it failed to materially shift market expectations.
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Investors are still forecasting two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, while several Federal Reserve officials maintain a more restrained stance, signaling support for only one cut.
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Further downside pressure on the U.S. dollar stems from several factors:

Continued strength in precious metals, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets

A deterioration in global risk sentiment amid escalating geopolitical tensions

The dollar has historically observed seasonal softness toward year-end
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Year to date in 2025, the dollar has depreciated by roughly 9.7%, placing it on course for its weakest annual performance since 2017. The year has been characterized by elevated political uncertainty, intensifying geopolitical conflicts, and persistent market debate over the Federal Reserve’s policy independence.

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Gold prices advanced to approximately $4,510 per ounce on Friday, remaining just below the record high above $4,525 reached earlier in the week.
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The rally has been underpinned by several fundamental factors:

Heightened geopolitical risk, particularly surrounding developments in Venezuela and the Russia–Ukraine conflict

Persistent market pricing of U.S. monetary easing

Continued, large-scale gold purchases by central banks

Consistent inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
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Consequently, precious metals have gained over 70% year to date, positioning 2025 as their strongest annual performance since 1979, and highlighting a decisive rotation by investors toward defensive, safe-haven assets.

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Oil is positioned to record its strongest weekly gain since October, with Brent crude around $62 per barrel and WTI near $58 per barrel.
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The upside has been supported by several key factors:

Intensified U.S. maritime sanctions on Venezuela, including the seizure of oil tankers, contributing to an elevated supply-side risk premium

Ongoing reciprocal strikes between Russia and Ukraine on energy infrastructure, including Kyiv’s attack on the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, a significant source of diesel and jet fuel

The U.S. announcement of an airstrike against ISIS in Nigeria, an OPEC member, further adding to geopolitical risk in oil markets

Nonetheless, concerns over a potential global supply glut continue to constrain upside, especially with projections for increased output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers in the coming year.

Year to date, oil has gained over 3% this week, yet remains on track for a material annual decline.

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Bitcoin is facing difficulty sustaining levels above $90,000, amid growing market speculation about the onset of a potential bearish phase.
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Analyst Ali Martinez noted parallels between the current price action and previous cycles, including:

Inability to reclaim critical psychological resistance levels

Extended corrective phases within the market

Currently, Bitcoin’s technical profile remains cautious, as a decisive breach of near-term support levels could exacerbate selling pressure in the short to medium term.