Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar remains near its lowest levels since early October, weighed down by reduced holiday liquidity.

Gold posts a modest pullback after reaching record highs, driven by limited profit-taking activity.

Oil prices advance on optimism surrounding Chinese demand prospects, although the market remains on course for a significant annual decline.

Bitcoin holds firm above the $88,000 level and is attempting to reclaim the $90,000 threshold.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Sideways within a channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 4,500.25
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 4,514.69
Targets: 4,534.04, then 4,549.16
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,495.71
Targets: 4,481.33, then 4,464.73
Note: Gold is trading within a clearly defined range; a breakout from either side is likely to determine the next directional move.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 57.290
Primary Scenario: Sell on a break below 57.004
Targets: 56.644, then 56.214
Alternative Scenario: Buy on a break above 57.502
Targets: 57.862, then 58.210
Note: Crude oil has broken a previous upward structure, and any current rally is considered corrective unless it exceeds 57.50

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Corrective downtrend within a larger trend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.17607
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 1.17754
Targets: 1.18016, then 1.18222
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.17484
Targets: 1.17310, then 1.17108
Note: The price remains below the moving averages under selling pressure. Rebounds are likely to remain weak unless the price moves back above 1.1775.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Sideways with a bearish bias
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34929
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 1.35079
Targets: 1.35255, then 1.35454
Alternative Scenario :Sell on a break below 1.34787
Targets: 1.34588, then 1.34398
Note: The pair failed to sustain levels above 1.350, and trading remains within a clearly defined range.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Uptrend with corrective pressure
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,827.00
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 25,921.50
Targets: 26,041.00, then 26,148.50
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,772.92
Targets: 25,659.75, then 25,551.75
Note: The index is trading below the 25,921 resistance level with weakening momentum. A break below 25,772 could trigger a deeper corrective move toward the moving averages.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States: U.S. Crude Oil Inventory – 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

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The U.S. dollar slipped below the 98 mark on Monday, consolidating near its lowest levels since early October, as holiday-thinned liquidity weighed on price action and markets-maintained expectations of additional monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in the year ahead.
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Market participants continue to price in two further interest rate cuts in 2026, despite evident divisions within the Federal Reserve. The median policy outlook from officials points to only a single cut, highlighting ongoing uncertainty over the resilience of U.S. economic growth and the durability of the disinflationary process.
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Attention is also focused on the forthcoming appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair. President Donald Trump is expected to announce a successor to Jerome Powell in early 2026, a decision that could materially influence the trajectory of monetary policy and shape medium- to long-term interest rate expectations.

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Investors are also focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Tuesday, which are expected to provide deeper insight into policymakers’ assessment of economic conditions and the prospective trajectory of interest rates.
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The U.S. dollar is on track to end 2025 with losses of more than 9%, potentially marking its weakest annual performance since 2017, weighed down by:

Aggressive trade policies

Heightened geopolitical risks

Rising concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Gold & Silver

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Gold prices retreated below the $4,500 per ounce level on Monday, easing modestly from record highs in what appears to be a natural bout of profit-taking following a strong rally.
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Despite this limited pullback, the broader trend for gold remains firmly bullish. The precious metal has gained more than 70% year to date and is on track to post its strongest annual performance since 1979.
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This robust performance is underpinned by several key drivers, most notably:

Sustained and sizable purchases by central banks

Ongoing inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

Persistent global geopolitical risks

The Federal Reserve’s gradual shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy stance

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Silver prices declined approximately 5% after reaching a record high of $84 per ounce, as investors engaged in profit-taking following an extraordinary rally.
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At this peak, silver has surged over 185% year-to-date, positioning it for its strongest annual performance since 1979.
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The metal has also overtaken Nvidia to become the world’s second-largest asset by market value after gold, with a valuation of approximately $4.65 trillion, compared with Nvidia’s market capitalization of $4.638 trillion.
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Investor interest in silver is increasingly driven by its dual role as both a strategic and industrial metal, rather than solely a safe-haven asset.
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Additionally, China is set to impose stricter controls on silver exports starting January 1, 2026. Only large, government-licensed companies will be permitted to export, while smaller firms will face tight restrictions. This policy reflects Beijing’s broader strategy to consolidate control over strategic metals and reduce global supply.

Oil

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Oil prices advanced on prospects of stronger Chinese demand, following Beijing’s announcement of expanded fiscal spending plans for 2026—indicating sustained support for economic growth and potential upward pressure on energy consumption.
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Brent crude is trading near $60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is around $57 per barrel.
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Markets are also closely watching U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as any substantive progress could ease restrictions on Russian oil exports, potentially reshaping the global supply dynamics.
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Despite the recent rally, oil remains on track for a year-to-date decline exceeding 20%, its largest annual loss since 2020, amid forecasts of a global supply surplus next year driven by higher output both from OPEC+ members and non-OPEC producers.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin has found clear support above the $88,000 level and has begun a gradual recovery, attempting to regain lost upward momentum.
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Currently, Bitcoin is focused on:

Maintaining trading above key support zones

Testing the psychological resistance level at $90,000
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Despite this rebound, the broader outlook remains cautious.
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A sustained bullish trend would require a decisive break and consolidation above $90,000, while any renewed failure could trigger a return of selling pressure.