enDaily Analysis 28/07/2025
Latest Economic Insights
The dollar fell towards 97.5 after a two-day rise.
The euro rose on the back of a trade agreement between Washington and Brussels.
Gold stabilizes after 3 straight losses amid trade optimism
Markets await the Fed meeting, labor market and inflation data.
Oil rises thanks to the US-EU trade agreement.
Investors await OPEC’s first production estimate for July.
Bitcoin approaches $120,500 with a fresh attempt at bullish momentum.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,339.09
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,348.27, targeting 3,357.82 and then 3,365.99.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,333.46, targeting 3,324.02 and then 3,314.93.
Comment: Gold is trying to rebound but is still below the moving averages. Any upcoming break will be decisive for the trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 65,244
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 65.598, targeting 65.958 and then 66.306.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking 64.695, targeting 64.336 and then 63.905.
Comment: Recent moves show bullish attempts, but the resistance break has not been confirmed yet.
EURUSD
General trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.17417
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.17715, targeting 1.17976 and then 1.18183.
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a break and stability below 1.17413, targeting 1.17118 and then 1.16916.
Comment: The price is very close to a crossroads at the averages.
GBPUSD
Trend: Horizontal
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34299
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.34705, targeting 1.34714 and then 1.34904.
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and holding below 1.34237, targeting 1.34038 and then 1.33848.
Comment: The price is fluctuating below an important resistance area, and the next trend is in the hands of the break.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,563.00
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq on a breakout and hold above 23,608.25, targeting 23,727.50 and then 23,835.25.
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq on a break and hold below 23,451.25, targeting 23,348.24 and then 23,238.25.
Comment: Continued consolidation above the averages supports the bullish scenario.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no important economic data today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell to 97.5 after two days of gains, weighed down by a stronger euro following a comprehensive trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, which includes imposing 15% tariffs on European goods, in exchange for a reduction in the previous threat of 30% tariffs.
This agreement is very similar to the one reached with Japan last week and is seen as a step toward calming global trade tensions.
Markets are now preparing for a busy week, led by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but attention is on any signs of a potential cut in September.
Investors are also awaiting crucial data, most notably:
The Fed’s preferred PCE indicator as a measure of inflation.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report on Friday
JOLTS and ADP report for the week
In metals, gold stabilized at $3,330 an ounce after three sessions of decline, as safe-haven demand for the metal eased after improved trade relations.
As for oil, West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $65.30 and Brent to $68.00, supported by the trade agreement. Markets await OPEC production data for July, which will provide an indication of countries’ commitment to production cuts.
Bitcoin is approaching $120,500 again after breaching the $118,500 level, and needs to break the next resistance level to strengthen its short-term upward momentum.
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