Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar holds near 98.1 as market bets on a September rate cut increase.

Gold retreats slightly to $3,380 but remains close to its highest level in two weeks.

Oil falls: Brent crude at $66, WTI at $63.8 on concerns about weak US demand.

China increased gold imports via Hong Kong by more than 126% in July.

Bitcoin rebounds slightly from its lows of $108,665, while Ethereum gains a further 8%.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Sideways bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,390.83

Scenario 1: Buy gold on a breakout and hold above 3,396.82, targeting 3,405.85 and then 3,414.02.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a breakout and hold below 3,381.49, targeting 3,372.05 and then 3,362.96.

Comment: Gold is moving within a minor ascending channel, and a break of the 3,396 resistance level enhances the possibility of a continued rise towards the 3,414 level.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish sideways

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 63,631

Scenario 1: Buy oil on a break and hold above 63.744, targeting 64.104 and then 64.452.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on a break and hold below 62.841, targeting 62.482 and then 62.052.

Comment: Oil is trading near critical support levels, and a break above 62.8 could signal a rebound, while a break could trigger a further decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.16433

Scenario 1: Buy the euro on a breakout and hold above 1.16630, targeting 1.16892 and then 1.17098.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a breakout and hold below 1.16223, targeting 1.16034 and then 1.15832.

Comment: The euro is under selling pressure, but a break above 1.166 could temporarily change the trend.

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GBPUSD

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.35128

Scenario 1: Buy the pound on a breakout and hold above 1.35262, targeting 1.35438 and then 1.35637.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound on a breakout and hold below 1.34971, targeting 1.34796 and then 1.34582.

Comment: The pound is moving sideways within a narrow range, and the current levels are pivotal to determining its next direction.

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NAS100

 

General direction: Horizontal

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 23,548

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq on a breakout and hold above 23,643.75, targeting 23,763.25 and then 23,870.75.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq on a breakout and hold below 23,496.23, targeting 23,382.00 and then 23,274.00.

Comment: The Nasdaq is at significant resistance, a break above which could open the way for a strong upside, while a failure would keep it within a range.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States of America:

GDP (Quarterly) – Q2 – 15:30.

Unemployment complaints rates – 3:30 PM.

Fed’s Balance Sheet – 23:30.

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index settled at 98.1 on Thursday, paring earlier gains, as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September mounted. Markets are now pricing in an 89% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 82% last week. New York Fed President John Williams’ comments supported these sentiments, confirming that a cut is “under consideration,” in line with Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

Institutional tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve continue to weigh on markets after Trump attempted to remove Governor Lisa Cook and replace her with a more moderate candidate, while her legal team confirmed its intention to appeal the decision. These developments have increased uncertainty about the central bank’s independence.

Gold fell to around $3,380 an ounce, just shy of a two-week high, as investors awaited Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Physical demand remained strong, with China’s gold imports via Hong Kong surging more than 126% in July compared to June.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell to $63.8 a barrel, reversing gains from the previous session, amid expectations of weaker demand in the United States as the summer driving season draws to a close. Energy Information Administration data showed a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories of 2.39 million barrels, but markets anticipated weaker fuel consumption after the Labor Day holiday.

Bitcoin recorded a slight recovery of 2.4% from its lows near $108,665, while Ethereum performed stronger, rising 8% to $4,663, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s attempt to regain stability after the recent sell-off.