enDaily Analysis 28/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar fell to a one-week low as safe-haven demand waned amid trade optimism.
Gold recovers above $4,000 an ounce after a sharp decline, with markets focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
Oil falls for the third consecutive session on expectations of an increase in OPEC+ production in December.
Bitcoin continues to consolidate gains above $113,500 with a potential breakout above resistance at $115,750.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Strong bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 3,953
First scenario: Sell on a break of 3,946 with targets of 3,932 and then 3,915.
Alternative scenario: Buy on a break of 3,973 with targets of 3,984 and then 4,000.
Commentary: Gold continues its sharp decline after breaking the ascending channel support. With the price remaining below 3,973, sellers remain in control. Any rebound toward 3,984 could be considered only a temporary correction.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bearish.
Time interval: 30 minutes.
Current price: 60.97.
First scenario: Sell on a break of 60.62 with targets of 60.26 and then 59.83.
Alternative scenario: Buy on a break of 61.52 with targets of 61.88 and then 62.23.
Comment: Oil is losing upward momentum and is trading in a narrow range below the moving averages. A break of 60.60 would confirm the return of selling pressure towards 60.20.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward but facing resistance
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: 1.1658
First scenario: Buy on a break of 1.1674 with targets of 1.1701 then 1.1721.
Alternative scenario: Sell on a break of 1.1632 with targets of 1.1615 then 1.1595.
Comment: The euro is retreating from a strong resistance area at 1.1670 after a strong rally, and stability above 1.1630 is necessary to maintain the positive outlook.
GBPUSD
General trend: Bullish in the short term.
Time interval: 30 minutes.
Current price: 1.3357.
First scenario: Buy on a break of 1.3375 with targets of 1.3399 then 1.3413.
Alternative scenario: Sell on a break of 1.3346 with targets of 1.3326 then 1.3307.
Comment: The pound has rebounded from strong support areas and is trading above the 200 moving average, which maintains the positive trend as long as it does not break 1.3340.
NAS100
General trend: Upward with the beginning of a correction.
Time interval: 30 minutes.
Current price: 25,965.
First scenario: Buy on a break of 26,032 with targets of 26,151 and then 26,259.
Alternative scenario: Sell on a break of 25,875 with targets of 25,770 and then 25,662.
Comment: The Nasdaq is trading at strong resistance levels after a sustained upward trend. A short-term correction is possible, but the main trend remains positive as long as the price is above 25,770.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
CB Consumer Confidence Index (October) – 17:00
New Home Sales (September) – 5:00 PM
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell to 98.6 on Tuesday, its lowest level in a week, as safe-haven demand for the greenback declined following growing optimism about a US-China trade deal, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday.
Officials from Washington and Beijing confirmed they have reached a framework agreement covering key issues such as tariffs, rare earth minerals, agriculture, and TikTok, paving the way for a preliminary agreement to be signed between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping during their upcoming meeting in South Korea on Thursday.
Trump is also scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi today to discuss defense spending and bilateral investments.
This comes as the US Federal Reserve prepares to cut interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, in a move aimed at supporting the economy following weak inflation data, with the possibility of an additional cut in December.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week.
Gold prices rose to nearly $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday after a sharp 3.2% drop in the previous session, the largest daily decline in more than a year.
This limited recovery was supported by markets’ anticipation of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting, as investors bet on confirmation of monetary easing policy in the coming period, which could boost demand for the metal in the future.
Despite the recent correction, gold remains up about 52% since the beginning of the year, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, a slowing global economy, and expectations of repeated US interest rate cuts.
Crude oil prices fell for the third consecutive session, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to $61.1 and Brent falling to $64 on Tuesday.
The pressure came after reports that OPEC+ plans to raise production in December in a move aimed at regaining Saudi Arabia’s market share, raising concerns about a supply surplus during the fourth quarter of the year.
New indicators also suggest that US sanctions on Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil may be less severe than expected, as Washington seeks to restrict Russian oil trade without causing a sharp spike in global prices.
These factors have outweighed the trade optimism that has supported markets over the past two days, keeping oil under pressure amid weak global demand forecasts.
Bitcoin continued to consolidate its gains above $113,500 on Tuesday, with a potential breakout of the $115,750 resistance level.
The digital market continues to benefit from improved global risk appetite and a weaker dollar, but movements remain limited as we await clarity on the direction of US monetary policy tomorrow following the Federal Reserve’s decision.
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