Daily Analysis 28/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar holds losses in thin holiday trade
The dollar index held its recent lows around 106.1 on Thursday, with trading volumes low due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The index fell 0.8% on Wednesday after U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation data came in in line with expectations, suggesting little change in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Gold falls below $2630
-PCE and core PCE prices showed that the advance of inflation has stalled, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on further rate cuts.
Additional data indicated that the economy remains strong, following the release of the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, while employment data indicated continued flexibility in the labor market, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits falling below expectations.
This data further limits the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates next year.
On the geopolitical front, traders continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. While the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has reduced the metal’s appeal as a safe haven, uncertainty remains following strong comments from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
-Gold is down; price likely to be volatile in the near term
Gold prices fell in early Asian trade. The price had rebounded slightly overnight on a weaker U.S. dollar but pared gains after U.S. data showed inflation was stalling.
The price of the precious metal may be volatile in the short term, and sees strong support at around $2,550 per ounce.
-Oil falls as US gasoline stocks rise; eyes on OPEC+ meeting at weekend; Brent trades at $72.00, WTI at $68.00
Trading is expected to be light due to the US Thanksgiving holiday which begins on Thursday.
Oil is likely to hold onto its downward momentum in the near term as supply disruption risks in the Middle East fade and as a result of higher-than-expected U.S. gasoline inventories, said IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong.
U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 22, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, defying expectations for a small draw in fuel inventories ahead of record holiday travel.
Slowing fuel demand growth in the biggest consumers, the United States and China, has weighed heavily on oil prices this year, although supply cuts by OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies, have limited losses.
OPEC+ is due to meet on Sunday. Two sources from the producer group told Reuters on Tuesday that members were discussing a further delay to a planned oil output increase that was due to start in January.
Suvro Sarkar, head of energy sector at DBS Bank, said further delays, as many in the market expected, were mostly a factor in oil prices already.
-Bitcoin price recovers above $94,000. Bitcoin is trying to consolidate and is targeting a new high above $97,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD

General trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2634.15
Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2627.70, targeting 2621.25 and then 2613.42
Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2639.40 with a target price of 2645.51 and 2652.64
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
CRUDE OIL

Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.57 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $68.24 level, targeting $67.71 and then $67.13.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $68.91, targeting $69.38 and then $6.
9.95 Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline
EURUSD

General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.05467
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05467, targeting 1.05217 and then 1.05004.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.05604, targeting 1.05789 and then 1.06013.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD

Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26594
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26502 level, targeting the price of 1.26261 and then 1.26039
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.26802, targeting 1.27042 and then 1.27329.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100

Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20853
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20930 with a target price of 21033 then 21151
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20773 with a target price of 20648 then 20541
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
United States – Thanksgiving
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held its recent lows around 106.1 on Thursday, with trading volumes low due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The index fell 0.8% on Wednesday after U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation data came in in line with expectations, suggesting little change in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Markets are currently pricing in a 66.5% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, up from 55.7% the previous week.
The dollar also came under pressure earlier this week after the nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary, which gave markets a sense of stability and reduced expectations of aggressive tariff policies under incoming President Trump.
Pressure on the dollar was added by gains in the euro and yen, fuelled by hawkish comments from a European Central Bank official and speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December.
Gold fell below $2,630 an ounce on Thursday, paring recent gains as investors continued to assess the latest batch of U.S. economic data.
Oil prices fell on Thursday after a surprise jump in U.S. gasoline inventories, with investors focused on an OPEC+ meeting this week to discuss oil production policy.
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