Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar fell for the second consecutive session to 98.00 amid the risk of a possible government shutdown.

Gold rises to $3,770 an ounce, approaching a record high.

Oil falls after Iraqi Kurdistan resumes exports, with Brent trading at $68 and WTI at $65.

Trump announces new tariffs to take effect on October 1, including pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture.

Bitcoin finds support at $108,680 and is currently trading above $111,000 with resistance at $112,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: strong upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3,815

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a breakout and stability above 3,822, targeting 3,831 and then 3,839.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on a break and hold below 3,806, targeting 3,797 and then 3,788.

Comment: Gold is in a strong upward trend supported by buying momentum, and resistance at 3,822 will be key to continuing the upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: sideways, bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 64.93

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 65.35, targeting 65.71 and then 66.06.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 64.45, targeting 64.09 and then 63.66.

Comment: Oil remains supported by momentum, but needs to break 65.35 to confirm the upside.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Downward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.1719

Scenario 1: Buy the euro with a breakout and stability above 1.1739, targeting 1.1765 and then 1.1788.

Alternative scenario: Sell the euro on a break and hold below 1.1697, targeting 1.1680 and then 1.1660.

Comment: The euro is in a corrective rebound, but the overall trend remains weak below 1.1740.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Downward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.3437

Scenario 1: Buy the pound with a breakout and stability above 1.3446, targeting 1.3463 and then 1.3483.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound after a break and stability below 1.3417, targeting 1.3397 and then 1.3382.

Comment: The pound is trying to recover, but is still trading under strong downward pressure.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish rebound

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 24,851

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,893, targeting 25,013 and then 25,120.

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq on break and hold below 24,736, targeting 24,632 and then 24,524

Comment: The Nasdaq is recovering recent losses, but the 24,893 resistance is the key barrier to continued upward movement.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United States: US President Donald Trump’s Speech – 20:15

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell to 98.0 on Monday, posting losses for the second consecutive session, amid concerns about a potential US government shutdown that could begin as early as Wednesday if Congress fails to pass a funding bill before the end of the fiscal year. President Trump is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders to try to reach an agreement to avert a shutdown.

Markets are awaiting vital data this week, including:

September Nonfarm Payrolls Report,

Job vacancies data,

Private Sector Jobs Report,

And the ISM manufacturing index.

Recent positive data has dampened the likelihood of further rate cuts, with markets now expecting 40 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. However, traders still price in a 90% probability of a cut in October and a 65% probability of another cut in December.

Gold continued its climb to $3,770 an ounce, benefiting from a weaker dollar and increased bets on interest rate cuts, along with its safe-haven status amid Trump’s new tariffs, which take effect in early October.

In energy markets, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell to $65 after Iraqi Kurdistan resumed exports at an initial rate of 180,000-190,000 barrels per day (bpd) via the Turkish port of Ceyhan, with expectations of a subsequent increase to 230,000 bpd. This resumption adds supply to a market already suffering from expectations of a surplus, especially with OPEC+ plans to increase production by another 137,000 bpd this week.

Bitcoin found support at $108,680 and rebounded to currently trade above $111,000, but faces strong resistance at $112,500. Continued upward momentum requires a break above this level; otherwise, a test of $110,500 remains possible.