Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The US Dollar Index held steady around 99.2 on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of key economic releases that could offer insights into the early effects of recently imposed tariffs.

The World Gold Council expects rising gold prices to negatively impact India’s jewelry purchases and boost investment demand.

Total gold demand in the first three months of 2025 rose 1% year-on-year to 1,206 metric tons, the strongest start to a year since 2016, the World Gold Council said Wednesday in a new report on gold demand trends.

President Trump signed executive orders on Tuesday aimed at preventing new tariffs on foreign-made cars from doubling existing tariffs, while also reducing duties on imported auto parts used in U.S. manufacturing.

Additionally, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reported progress in trade negotiations with an undisclosed country.

However, gold is on track for its fourth consecutive monthly gain of more than 6%, having repeatedly reached new highs during that period.

This rise was fueled by uncertainty surrounding global trade tensions, particularly the US-China trade relationship, along with growing concerns about economic pressures in the US. Strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds,
aggressive buying by central banks, and signs of speculative demand in China contributed to this upward trend.

Oil prices are falling and are heading for their biggest monthly drop in three years, with Brent crude trading at $65.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $62.00.

Brent and West Texas Intermediate fell for the third consecutive session, recording their lowest levels in more than two weeks.

Both are down more than 15% so far in April.

China’s PMI drops sharply due to Trump’s tariffs

OPEC+ meeting on May 5, and the market fears another production increase.

Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude have lost 15% and 16%, respectively, so far this month, the largest percentage decline since November 2021.

Both benchmark crude oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump announced on April 2 that he would impose tariffs on all US imports. They then continued to fall to four-year lows as China retaliated with tariffs on US imports, sparking a trade war between the two largest oil consumers.

Reuters polls show that Trump’s tariffs on imports into the United States make it likely the global economy will slide into recession this year.

A factory survey released Wednesday showed that factory activity in China contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate its gains above $94,000. Bitcoin is experiencing a renewed rally and may target a break above the resistance level at $95,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 3306.68

First scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 3316.26, targeting 3325.22 and 3333.39.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3300.68, targeting 3291.42 and then 3282.33.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $59.45 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a breakout and hold steady with a candle closing above $59.64, targeting $60.00 and then $60.35.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil after breaking the $59.09 level, targeting $58.73 and then $58.30.

Comment: Trading below the resistance and moving averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.13882

First scenario: Buy the EUR/USD after breaking 1.14066, targeting 1.14327 and then 1.14534.

Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after a breakout and hold steady with a candle close below 1.13643, targeting 1.13469 and then 1.13267.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

GBPUSD

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Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.340009

Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and stability above 1.34091, targeting 1.34267 and then 1.34466.

Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD after breaking and closing below 1.33799, targeting 1.33601 and then 1.33411.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19555

Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq after a breakout and hold steady with a close above 19,644, targeting 19,763 and then 19,871.

Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq after a break and close below 19,487, targeting 19,382 and then 19,274.

Comment: Trading above the support and moving averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Germany German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 11:00
-From Europe GDP (YoY) (Q1) 12:00
-From Germany German CPI (MoM) (April) 15:00

From the United States of America, ADP Non-Farm Private Sector Employment Change (April) 15:15

United States GDP (Quarterly) (Q1) 15:30

From the United States of America Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (MoM) (March) 17:00

From the United States of America Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (YoY) (March) 17:00

US crude oil inventories 17:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index held steady around 99.2 on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of key economic releases that could offer insights into the early effects of recently imposed tariffs.

Markets are closely watching the March personal consumption expenditures price index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – and the preliminary estimate of first-quarter GDP, both due later today.

Data on Tuesday showed the U.S. goods trade deficit widened to a record $162 billion in March, far exceeding expectations, as import volumes surged—likely due to a rush to secure goods ahead of tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2.

To mitigate the impact of the new auto tariffs, President Trump signed a series of executive orders providing tax credits and exemptions from certain material duties.

He also indicated that a trade agreement with India may be imminent, while talks with Japan and South Korea are reportedly making progress.

Gold extended its recent decline to below $3,310 an ounce on Wednesday, as easing concerns over the impact of US tariffs dampened demand for safe-haven assets.

Oil prices continued their slide on Wednesday, heading for their biggest monthly drop in more than three years, as the global trade war eroded fuel demand prospects and concerns about oversupply also weighed.