enDaily Analysis 30/07/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Dollar falls to 98.7 ahead of Fed decision
Gold settles near 3-week low amid easing concerns
Markets await interest rate announcement and Powell’s conference this evening.
US-China talks end without agreement on extending tariff truce
Oil holds near 5-week high despite rising inventories
US ADP and GDP data on the agenda today to assess the health of the economy.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,324.62
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,334.67, targeting 3,341.70 and then 3,351.86
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3,318.37, targeting 3,309.90 and then 3,300.80
Comment: The price is moving within an upward sloping channel, and a break of either end will determine the next move
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 68.66
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and hold above 69.246, targeting 69.606 and then 69.954
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 68.344, targeting 67.984 and then 67.554
Comment: After a sharp rise, the price is facing strong resistance, and holding below 68.34 will increase the probability of a correction
EURUSD
General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.15480
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD after breaking 1.15807, targeting 1.16068 and then 1.16275
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD after breaking and consolidating below 1.15384, targeting 1.15210 and then 1.15008
Comment: A sideways move after a sharp decline, and breaking resistance or support will determine the next path.
GBPUSD
General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33487
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.33648, targeting 1.33824 and then 1.34023
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and hold below 1.33356, targeting 1.33157 and then 1.32968
Comment: The price is facing pressure from the averages, but holding above them will provide more momentum.
NAS100
General trend: Sideways with an upward slope
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,502.75
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,608.25, targeting 23,727.50 and then 23,800.00
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold below 23,451.25, targeting 23,346.50 and then 23,238.25
Comment: The price is trading between strong supply and demand areas, and a break or breach will direct the next trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
Eurozone GDP – 12:00
From America and Canada:
Private Sector Jobs (ADP) – 15:15
US GDP (Q2) – 15:30
Canadian Interest Rate Decision – 16:45
US oil inventories – 17:30
US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – 21:00
FOMC Statement + Powell Press Conference – 9:00 PM / 9:30 PM
Fundamental Analysis
The US dollar index fell to 98.7 on Wednesday, following a four-day rally, as markets remained cautious ahead of today’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Although expectations favor a hold on interest rates, focus will be on Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference for hints of a potential cut in September.
In the political context, Trump continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while prominent members such as Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman were expected to show caution at the meeting.
Markets are also awaiting important data today, including:
ADP Employment Report
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
US oil inventories
are indicators that will reflect the performance of the economy before the release of the NFP jobs report on Friday.
On trade, US-China talks in Stockholm ended without an agreement to extend the tariff truce, leaving the final decision in Trump’s hands in the coming days.
Gold stabilized at $3,320 an ounce, affected by easing trade tensions and weak demand for safe havens.
Oil held above $69 a barrel (WTI) despite an American Petroleum Institute report showing a surprise 1.5 million barrel increase in inventories. However, geopolitical tensions with Russia and stable global trade are providing support for prices.
Bitcoin remains stable at $117,250 and needs to break above $118,500 to confirm any further upward momentum.
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