Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar stabilizes near 98.00 as the risk of a US government shutdown escalates.

Gold hits a new record high of $3,840 per ounce, supported by market concerns and expectations of a rate cut.

Oil continues its losses: Brent at $66 and West Texas Intermediate at $62, with expectations of increased OPEC+ production.

Iraqi Kurdistan resumes exports via the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline with US support.

Trump and Netanyahu reach preliminary agreement on Gaza peace plan, with threats of military action if Hamas refuses.

Bitcoin rises above $114,000 but faces strong resistance at $115,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Up after correction
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,853

First scenario: Buy gold with a breakout and hold above 3,863, targeting 3,872 and then 3,880.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a breakout and hold below 3,848, targeting 3,838 and then 3,829.

Comment: Gold saw a strong rally this morning, and any break above 3,863 would confirm the continuation of the upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Down
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 62.65

First scenario: Buy oil with a breakout and stability above 63.26, targeting 63.62 and then 63.94.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a breakout and stability below 62.36, targeting 62.00 and then 61.57.

Comment: Oil is under intense selling pressure after breaking key support levels, with a limited potential for a corrective rebound.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.1746

Scenario 1: Buy the euro with a breakout and hold above 1.1755, targeting 1.1781 and then 1.1802.
Alternative scenario: Sell the euro with a breakout and hold below 1.1726, targeting 1.1713 and then 1.1696.

Commentary: The euro is attempting to recover after a previous downward trend, and a break above 1.1755 will be key to continuing the upward trend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Upward sloping
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.3447

First scenario: Buy the pound with a breakout and hold above 1.3456, targeting 1.3474 and then 1.3494.
Alternative scenario: Sell the pound with a breakout and hold below 1.3423, targeting 1.3407 and then 1.3388.

Comment: The pound is holding onto its recent gains, and a break above the 1.3456 resistance will push it further upwards.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish.
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes).
Current price: 24,796.

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a breakout and hold above 24,900, targeting 25,019 and then 25,127.
Alternative Scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a breakout and hold below 24,754, targeting 24,638 and then 24,530.

Comment: Nasdaq is under selling pressure after the recent rebound, watch 24,754 key to determine whether the decline continues or a recovery.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

China: Manufacturing PMI (September) – 04:30

Australia: Interest Rate Decision – October – 07:30

United Kingdom: GDP (Q/Y) – Q2 – 09:00

Germany: Consumer Price Index (MoM) – September – 15:00

United States: CB Consumer Confidence Index (September) – 5:00 PM

United States: Job Openings (JOLTS) (August) – 5:00 PM

United States: President Trump’s Speech – 6:00 PM

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held near 98.0 on Tuesday after two consecutive sessions of decline, as attention remains focused on the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown beginning Wednesday if a short-term funding agreement is not reached between the Trump administration and Congress. This scenario could lead to a delay in the release of economic data such as the September nonfarm payrolls report.

On the monetary policy front, comments from Federal Reserve members—led by John Williams of New York—bolstered expectations for further easing, as they pointed to the weakness in the labor market as a key factor supporting the previous rate cut. Markets are currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in October, with a total expected easing of approximately 42 basis points before the end of the year.

In precious metals, gold jumped to $3,840 per ounce, hitting a new record high, driven by a combination of a weaker dollar, rising political risks (government shutdown and new tariffs), and expectations of a continued Fed rate cut cycle.

Oil continued to decline, with West Texas Intermediate futures falling to $63 per barrel. Pressure stemmed from the resumption of Iraqi Kurdistan exports via the Turkish pipeline (at an initial rate of 180,000–190,000 barrels per day), along with expectations that OPEC+ will agree to a new production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November. Despite geopolitical risks, the return of supplies and a potential ceasefire in Gaza have heightened concerns about oversupply.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has risen above $114,000, but faces solid resistance at $115,000, making a break above this level necessary to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. Nearer support remains at $113,200.