enDaily Analysis 30/10/2025
Latest Economic Insights
Top headlines
The dollar rose above 99 after Powell’s hawkish comments and reduced expectations of an interest rate cut in December.
Gold stabilizes near a 3-week low as market bets on monetary easing decline.
Oil prices fell as US-China trade talks concluded amid expectations of increased OPEC+ production.
Bitcoin continues to correct below $112,500 as momentum weakens following central bank decisions.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Sideways with an upward bias
. Timeframe: 30 minutes.
Current price: 3,958
Scenario 1: Buy on a break above 3,976 with targets of 3,987 then 4,002.
Scenario 2: Sell on a break below 3,949 with targets of 3,934 then 3,918.
Comment: Gold is trading within a narrow upward channel, and holding above 3,949 maintains the short-term positive outlook, while any break below it will bring back selling momentum towards 3,918.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: Downward
; Time frame: 30 minutes;
Current price: 60.00
Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 59.71 with targets of 59.35 then 58.92.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 60.61 with targets of 60.97 then 61.32.
Comment: Oil is moving below all averages, reinforcing the downward trend, but a limited bounce may occur from 59.70 before the negative trajectory resumes.
EURUSD
General trend: Downward
; Time frame: 30 minutes;
Current price: 1.1619
Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 1.1602 with targets at 1.1585 then 1.1565.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 1.1638 with targets at 1.1671 then 1.1692.
Comment: The euro is facing negative pressure after breaking the upward trend line, and continued trading below 1.1630 keeps the bearish outlook intact.
GBPUSD
General trend: Strong downward;
Time frame: 30 minutes;
Current price: 1.3197
Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 1.3188 with targets at 1.3168 then 1.3149.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 1.3217 with targets at 1.3235 then 1.3255.
Comment: The pound continues to decline within a descending channel, and as long as the price remains below 1.3230, the bears remain in control, while any break above could correct towards the averages.
NAS100
General trend: Sideways with a downward bias.
Time frame: 30 minutes.
Current price: 26,225
Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 26,156 with targets of 26,051 then 25,943.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 26,313 with targets of 26,432 then 26,540.
Comment: The Nasdaq is currently testing pivotal support at the 100-day moving average. A break below 26,150 would open the way for a deeper correction towards 26,000, while holding above it would support a temporary rebound.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the Eurozone:
Gross Domestic Product (Q3) (annual) – 13:00
Lending interest rate (October) – 16:15
European Central Bank interest rate decision (October) – 16:15
European Central Bank Press Conference – 16:45
From the United States of America:
New home sales (September) – 14:00
Gross Domestic Product (Q3) (annual) – 15:30
US Federal Reserve Balance Sheet – 23:30
Fundamental Analysis
The U.S. dollar index held above 99 on Thursday, maintaining strong gains after its sharp rise in the previous session, as investors scaled back expectations for an interest rate cut in December following Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks.
The US Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a widely expected reduction, but Powell made it clear that a further cut this year is not guaranteed, citing divisions within the committee and a weak flow of economic data as a result of the ongoing government shutdown.
He also indicated that the Fed would end its balance sheet reduction program in December, which was interpreted as a signal that the current easing cycle was nearing its end.
As a result, market bets on a further rate cut fell from 100% to below 70%, boosting the US dollar and pushing it to its highest level in two weeks.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, where they are expected to announce a preliminary trade agreement that would end months of trade disputes and ease pressure on the global economy.
This development has contributed to improved risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the yen.
Gold prices held steady around $3,930 an ounce on Thursday, remaining close to a three-week low after investors scaled back bets on further U.S. interest rate cuts.
Despite short-term weakness, gold remains more than 50% higher since the start of the year, supported by political uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying.
Analysts believe that any signal from the Federal Reserve to halt its easing cycle could keep gold under temporary pressure, while support could return if US economic data slows in the coming weeks.
Crude oil prices fell on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate dropping to around $59 and Brent to $63, after the Trump-Xi summit ended with progress on trade issues but excluded energy from the agenda.
Investors are also awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on November 2, amid reports that the alliance is considering a modest production increase for December, a move that could put further downward pressure on prices given the ample supply.
Despite some trade optimism, oil is still on track for its third consecutive monthly loss—its longest losing streak since mid-2023—due to persistent concerns about oversupply and slowing global demand.
Bitcoin fell below $112,500 on Thursday, continuing its correction after recent gains.
Pressure is expected to persist as long as the price remains below the $112,000 resistance level, with the next support level at $110,000 potentially being tested if the dollar remains strong and appetite for riskier assets wanes following the Federal Reserve’s decisions.
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