Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar is consolidating near its lowest levels since early October, as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes.

Gold has rebounded following its steepest one-day decline since October, preserving its status as a safe-haven asset.

Silver prices have recovered after a sharp decline of more than 12%, touching a low of $70 in the previous session.

Oil prices are maintaining recent gains, supported by heightened geopolitical risks, despite remaining on course for a significant annual loss.

Bitcoin is finding technical support above the $88,000 level and is attempting to reclaim the $90,000 threshold.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Upward, within an ascending channel
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: $4,379.57
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above $4,384.46
Targets: $4,395.93, followed by $4,411.04
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below $4,357.60
Targets: $4,343.21, followed by $4,326.62
Note: Gold maintains a bullish structure following a strong rebound. A decisive break below $4,357 would weaken the bullish case and favor a downside move.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Corrective uptrend
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: $58.013
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above $58.162
Targets: $58.521, followed by $58.869
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below $57.603
Targets: $57.304, followed by $56.873
Note: Oil is rebounding after a sharp decline. A sustained breakout above $58.162 would support further upward momentum.

EURUSD

Trend: Sideways with a slight bearish bias
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 1.17745
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above 1.17873
Targets: 1.18134, followed by 1.18341
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below 1.17603
Targets: 1.17428, followed by 1.17227
Note: Price is currently trading between moving averages; the breakout or breakdown will likely determine the session’s directional bias.

GBPUSD

Trend: Sideways with a slight bullish bias
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 1.35133
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above 1.35236
Targets: 1.35412, followed by 1.35611
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below 1.34961
Targets: 1.34746, followed by 1.34556Note: The pair is holding above key support levels; a breakout would confirm the continuation of the upward move.

NAS100

Trend: Corrective downtrend
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 25,731.25
Primary Scenario (Bullish): Buy on a breakout above 25,805.50
Targets: 25,924.75, followed by 26,032.50
Alternative Scenario (Bearish): Sell on a break below 25,648.50
Targets: 25,543.75, followed by 25,435.75
Note: The index is trading below moving averages with weak momentum. Only a sustained breakout above 25,805.50 would restore bullish sentiment.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States: U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes – 22:00

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

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The U.S. dollar index held steady near the 98 level on Tuesday, remaining close to its lowest levels since early October, as market participants await the release of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes for greater clarity on the interest rate trajectory in 2026.
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Financial markets continue to price in two additional rate cuts in 2026, despite notable divergence within the Federal Reserve. While most policymakers’ projections point to only a single reduction, this disparity underscores prevailing uncertainty surrounding the resilience of the U.S. economy and the durability of the ongoing disinflation process.
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At the same time, investors are closely watching developments regarding the appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair. President Donald Trump is expected to announce Jerome Powell’s successor early next year, a decision that could materially influence future monetary policy direction and broader market expectations.

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So far in 2025, the U.S. dollar has declined by approximately 9.6%, marking its weakest annual performance since 2017.
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The currency has come under pressure from expectations of interest rate cuts, narrowing yield differentials with other major currencies, as well as volatile trade policies and growing concerns over fiscal deficits and the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Gold & Silver

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Gold prices climbed above $4,350 per ounce on Tuesday, rebounding from a sharp decline of more than 4% in Monday’s session—the steepest one-day drop since October and the second-largest daily loss for gold in 2025.
•

Despite the recent volatility, the broader outlook for gold remains constructive. The precious metal continues to benefit from its safe-haven appeal amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in light of:

Growing doubts surrounding peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

Warnings from President Donald Trump regarding potential additional strikes on Iran

Escalating tensions in Venezuela following U.S. strikes on facilities linked to drug trafficking
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Gold remains on track to post its strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by sustained central bank buying, robust inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and ongoing expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts.

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Following yesterday’s sharp sell-off, which pushed silver prices down to a low of $70.71 per ounce, silver rebounded, with spot prices climbing back above the $74 level.
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Silver had reached a record high of $84 per ounce at the end of last week, representing a gain of more than 185% year-to-date.
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The outlook for silver remains constructive after breaking multiple record levels this year, supported by strong industrial demand and continued expansion in solar energy adoption.
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China is also tightening its grip on the global silver market, having announced the implementation of a government licensing regime for silver exports effective January 1, 2026—a move that underscores Beijing’s strategic approach to controlling critical minerals.
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Under the new regulations, silver exports will be permitted only for large, state-approved companies, while small and medium-sized enterprises will be required to meet stringent licensing criteria in order to participate in export activities.

Oil

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Oil prices continued to trade at relatively elevated levels, with Brent crude hovering near $61 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $57 per barrel.
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The primary support for prices has come from rising geopolitical risks, following reports that Venezuela has begun shutting down oil wells in key regions under the pressure of U.S. sanctions, a move aimed at intensifying financial strain on the country.
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Diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the war in Ukraine have once again been clouded by uncertainty, after Russian statements indicated a reassessment of the negotiating stance in response to alleged attacks targeting President Vladimir Putin’s residence.
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In the Middle East, airstrikes in Yemen and increasingly escalatory rhetoric from Iran—alongside warnings from President Donald Trump of potential further military action—have contributed to a higher geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.
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Despite these supportive factors, oil prices remain on track to post an annual decline of nearly 20%, the steepest since 2020, amid expectations of ample global supply conditions in the year ahead.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin has established solid technical support above the $88,000 threshold and has initiated a measured rebound, signaling an attempt to restore bullish momentum.
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Market participants are closely monitoring:

The $90,000 level, which represents a critical psychological barrier and a major technical resistance.

The ability of price action to hold above prevailing support levels as confirmation of a sustainable recovery
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Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin’s broader technical structure remains cautious. A definitive shift toward a bullish bias would require a sustained and decisive break above $90,000, while failure to clear this level could trigger renewed selling pressure and a retest of lower support zones.