Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

The dollar held steady at 99.8, near a two-month high after the Fed held interest rates steady.

Powell: It’s too early to think about cutting interest rates, and markets are reducing easing bets.

Gold rebounds from 4-week low amid Fed comments

Trump announces new tariffs on India and Brazil and eliminates import exemptions

Oil at 6-week high despite large inventory build

New sanctions on Iran and threats to Russia heighten oil supply concerns.

Bitcoin holds above $117,500, targets $118,600

Markets await PCE inflation and unemployment claims data today.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Sideways with an upward slope

Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 3,300.38
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and hold above 3,308.73, targeting 3,317.76 and then 3,325.93
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and hold below 3,293.40, targeting 3,283.96 and then 3,274.87
Comment: The price has returned to trading within the ascending channel, and breaking the averages will confirm the upward path

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Sideways
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 69.270
First scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold above 69.796, targeting 70.155 and then 70.503
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and hold below 68.893, targeting 68.533 and then 68.103
Comment: The price is fluctuating within a supply zone, and a break will confirm one of the two trends

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Bullish in the short term
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.14512
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD with a break and hold above 1.14646, targeting 1.14907 and then 1.15114
Alternative scenario: Sell EUR/USD with a break and hold below 1.14223, targeting 1.14049 and then 1.13847
Comment: Breaking the current resistance supports the rise, especially with the recent improvement in momentum

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Bullish rebound after a decline
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.32718
Scenario 1: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold above 1.32847, targeting 1.33023 and then 1.33222
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and hold below 1.32556, targeting 1.32357 and then 1.32167
Comment: The current movement is corrective, but continuing to hold above 1.325 supports the upward momentum

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NAS100

 

General trend: Upward
Time interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 23,785.25
Scenario 1: Buy the Nasdaq with a break and hold above 23,862.00, targeting 23,981.25 and then 24,089.00
Alternative scenario: Sell the Nasdaq with a break and hold below 23,705.00, targeting 23,600.25 and then 23,492.25
Comment: Strong upward momentum supported by the averages, and a break of 23,862 reinforces the continuation of the rise

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From China: Manufacturing PMI – 04:30

From Japan: Interest Rate Decision – 06:00

From Germany:

Consumer Price Index (Monthly) – 11:00

Consumer Price Index (YoY) – 15:00

From the Eurozone: Consumer Price Index (YoY) – 11:00

From the United States:

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – 15:30

Weekly unemployment claims – 3:30 PM

Federal Budget – 23:30

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The US dollar index held steady at 99.8, near a two-month high, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, as expected.

Jerome Powell emphasized that it was still too early to cut interest rates and did not provide clear indications about the timing, prompting markets to reduce their bets for a limited cut of 35 basis points by the end of 2025.

The dollar was also supported by strong US data, with GDP and private sector employment beating expectations.

All eyes now turn to today’s PCE and unemployment claims data, followed by tomorrow’s NFP jobs report, for confirmation of the upcoming economic direction.

On the trade side, Trump imposed new tariffs of 25% on Indian imports and 15% on South Korea, eliminated exemptions for low-value shipments, and revised tariffs on copper and Brazil.

In metals, gold rose to $3,290 an ounce, recovering from previous declines, driven by markets’ assessment of the balance of monetary policy and trade tensions.

In energy, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose above $70, supported by concerns about global supply shortages despite an EIA report showing a massive increase in US inventories of 7.7 million barrels, the largest in six months.

New sanctions on Iran and pressure on Russia and India have fueled supply shortage fears, amid anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, which could indicate an increase in production.

Bitcoin continues to stabilize above $117,500, targeting a break above $118,600 to regain upward momentum in the near term.