Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines

The dollar is holding steady near a three-month high and is on track for strong monthly gains as expectations of an interest rate cut recede.

Gold falls for the second week in a row amid trade optimism and pressure from a strong dollar.

Oil continues its monthly losses for the third month despite trade optimism between Washington and Beijing.

A one-year trade agreement between the United States and China eases the conflict and revives activity in the markets.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Temporarily upward after a sharp decline.
Time frame: 30 minutes.
Current price: 4,002

Scenario 1: Buy on a break above 4,016 with targets of 4,027 then 4,043.
Scenario 2: Sell on a break below 3,994 with targets of 3,975 then 3,958.

Comment: Gold is moving with strong volatility near the upward trend line, and holding above 3,994 strengthens the chances of a rebound towards 4,027, while breaking below this level will bring back selling pressure towards 3,958.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: Sideways with a downward bias.
Time frame: 30 minutes.
Current price: 59.94

Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 59.63 with targets of 59.27 then 58.84.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 60.53 with targets of 60.89 then 61.24.

Comment: Oil remains weak below averages, and selling momentum is in control as long as it does not break through 60.50, which suggests a continuation of the decline in the short term.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Downward
; Time frame: 30 minutes;
Current price: 1.1569

Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 1.1551 with targets at 1.1534 then 1.1514.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 1.1594 with targets at 1.1620 then 1.1641.

Comment: The euro continues to trade within a short-term descending channel, and breaking the 1.1550 level will confirm the continuation of the decline towards the weekly support zones.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: Downward
; Time frame: 30 minutes;
Current price: 1.3153

Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 1.3144 with targets of 1.3124 then 1.3105.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 1.3174 with targets of 1.3190 then 1.3210.

Comment: The pound continues to move below the three moving averages, indicating a weak upward trend, and any break below the 1.3170 level may only give a limited correction.

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NAS100

 

General trend: Corrective downward.
Timeframe: 30 minutes.
Current price: 26,165

Scenario 1: Sell on a break below 26,101 with targets of 25,996 then 25,888.
Scenario 2: Buy on a break above 26,258 with targets of 26,377 then 26,485.

Comment: The Nasdaq index has lost its upward momentum after a short rebound, and holding below 26,250 reinforces the likelihood of a continued downward correction towards 26,000.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Europe:

Consumer Price Index (Yearly) (October) – 13:00

From Canada:

Government General Budget (Annual) (August) – 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The U.S. dollar index held near a three-month high of 99.5 on Friday, posting a monthly gain of nearly 2% in October, as market bets on further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve eased.

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, Jerome Powell confirmed that another cut in December was not guaranteed, citing internal divisions within the committee and a lack of economic data due to the government shutdown.
This statement tempered monetary optimism and supported the strength of the dollar, which also received a boost from trade optimism following the Trump-Xi Jinping summit in South Korea.

The agreement reached between the two sides stipulated a one-year trade truce covering rare earth and base metals, along with a reduction of US tariffs on fentanyl to 10%, in exchange for China’s commitment to limit production and resume purchases of US soybeans.
However, some analysts expressed doubts about the agreement’s sustainability given the long-standing structural differences between the two countries.

In contrast, the dollar recorded its biggest monthly gains against the Japanese yen in more than a year, supported by the election of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who supports fiscal stimulus and continuing with an accommodative monetary policy.

Gold prices fell to around $4,010 an ounce on Friday, heading for their second consecutive weekly loss, as expectations of a US interest rate cut receded and the dollar remained strong.

Despite recent pressures, gold remains up nearly 50% year-to-date, supported by strong demand from global central banks.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased 220 tons of gold in the third quarter of the year—a 28% increase from the previous quarter—led by Kazakhstan and Brazil, reflecting continued hedging against global economic risks.

Crude oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent crude trading near $63 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $59, heading for its third straight monthly loss — its longest losing streak since mid-2023.

The downward pressure on prices stemmed from the expected increase in OPEC+ production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, part of the alliance’s plan to regain market share.
Data also showed Saudi exports rising to a six-month high of 6.41 million barrels per day, while the United States recorded record production of 13.6 million barrels per day last week.

Despite new US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, ample supply from other producers—along with a strong dollar—kept prices under pressure.
However, markets received some support after Trump stated that China had agreed to resume purchasing US energy, including a potential deal for oil and gas from Alaska.

Bitcoin and digital markets

In the digital markets, some companies, such as Bitcoin Treasury, saw their shares rise by 6% after announcing a net income of $2.8 billion for the third quarter, a figure lower than the second quarter but exceeding analysts’ expectations, reflecting the continued strength of the digital sector despite overall volatility.