Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar is stabilizing near its lowest levels since early October and is on track to post its largest annual decline since 2017.

Gold is closing out 2025 with strong gains, marking its best annual performance since 1979, supported by monetary policy dynamics and geopolitical factors.

Oil is poised to record its largest annual drop in five years, amid expectations of a supply surplus.

Bitcoin has fallen sharply below $88,000 and is facing technical headwinds as the year comes to a close.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bearish following a downside channel break
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 4,310.58
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 4,333.01
Targets: 4,348.12, then 4,361.65
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a confirmed break below 4,294.68
Targets: 4,280.29, then 4,263.70
Note: A strong bearish breakdown has been followed by a weak rebound attempt. Sustained trading below 4,333 continues to maintain downside pressure.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Sideways with a slight bearish bias
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 57.767
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 58.061
Targets: 58.421, then 58.769
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a confirmed break below 57.563
Targets: 57.203, then 56.773
Note: Crude oil is trading within a consolidation range, and a breakout from this range will likely determine the next directional move.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.17367
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.17778
Targets: 1.17985, then 1.18100
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a confirmed break below 1.17247
Targets: 1.17072, then 1.16870
Note: Bearish momentum persists, with lower highs supporting a potential continuation of the downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34573
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.34917
Targets: 1.35116, then 1.35200
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a confirmed break below 1.34449
Targets: 1.34250, then 1.34060
Note: The pair has broken a key support level and is trading below moving averages, so any upward movement is likely corrective in nature.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Bearish corrective
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,586.25
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 25,716.86
Targets: 25,819.50, then 25,927.25
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a confirmed break below 25,543.25
Targets: 25,438.50, then 25,330.50
Note: The price is trading below moving averages with clear selling pressure; only a confirmed breakout above resistance would restore bullish momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Public holiday in most countries worldwide (New Year’s Eve)

From the United States:
Initial Jobless Claims | 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

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The U.S. dollar index settled at 98.2 points on the final trading day of 2025, remaining near its lowest level since early October and on track to record its largest annual decline since 2017.
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Over the course of the year, the dollar fell by approximately 9.4%, in a year marked by heightened volatility that began with President Donald Trump’s introduction of broad-based tariff policies, which raised market concerns over trade stability and economic growth.
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Several additional factors contributed to the weakening of the U.S. currency, most notably:

Market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve

Narrowing yield differentials between the dollar and other major currencies

Rising concerns over the fiscal deficit

Ongoing debate surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve

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Markets are closely monitoring President Trump’s anticipated appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026, a development that could exert a meaningful influence on the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.
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Against this backdrop, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting indicated that a majority of officials view further interest rate easing as appropriate, provided that inflation continues to moderate.
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However, policymakers remain divided regarding both the timing and the scale of any additional rate reductions.
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Meanwhile, financial markets continue to price in two interest rate cuts over the course of 2026.

Gold & Silver

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Gold closed 2025 at levels above $4,360 per ounce, marking one of the strongest years in its history and delivering its best annual performance in more than four decades.
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Gold prices surged by approximately 66% over the year, with bullish momentum accelerating from late April following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping global tariffs, which significantly boosted safe-haven demand.
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This exceptional performance was underpinned by a combination of interrelated factors, most notably:

Persistent geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela

U.S. interest rate cuts alongside expectations of further monetary easing

Robust purchases by central banks

A sharp increase in holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
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Overall, this performance reflects a clear shift in investor sentiment toward hedging assets amid rising global uncertainty.

Oil

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Oil is heading toward one of its weakest annual performances in five years, with Brent crude trading near $61 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $57 per barrel.
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Estimates suggest that WTI crude has declined by approximately 20% over the course of 2025, recording its fifth consecutive monthly loss in December.
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The primary sources of downward pressure on prices include:

Expectations of a sizable global supply surplus in 2026

Rising production from OPEC+ members as well as non-OPEC producers

Sluggish growth in global demand

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Despite these headwinds, geopolitical risks continue to offer some underlying support to prices, including:

The ongoing U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil shipments

Heightened tensions in the Middle East

Uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine
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Preliminary data also indicated that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by approximately 1.7 million barrels last week, which—if confirmed officially—would mark the largest weekly increase since mid-November.

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin retreated sharply toward year-end, falling below the $88,000 level before attempting to stabilize near a key support zone around $86,700.
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The digital asset is currently facing several challenges, most notably:

Diminishing buying momentum

Failure to hold above key psychological price levels

Rising concerns over a deeper corrective phase at the start of 2026
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The technical outlook remains cautious, as any sustainable recovery would require a decisive move and sustained trading above major resistance levels, while a break below current support could trigger additional downside pressure.