Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar begins 2026 under clear pressure, hovering near its lowest levels in several months.

Gold records a strong start to the year, supported by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts.

Oil prices stabilize at the start of the year as markets await the OPEC+ meeting and assess supply abundance.

Bitcoin moves sideways near $88,000, amid reduced liquidity due to the holiday period.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bullish within a channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current price: 4,378.07

Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,386.88
Targets: 4,398.35, then 4,413.46

Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 4,360.01
Targets: 4,345.63, then 4,329.04

Note: Gold maintains a bullish structure after a strong rebound from the lower boundary of the channel. A break below 4,360 would weaken the bullish scenario.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current price: 57.468

Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 57.738
Targets: 57.883, then 58.097

Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 57.239
Targets: 56.880, then 56.449

Note: Oil has broken a previous consolidation range, and any current upside move is considered corrective unless 57.73 is decisively breached.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Corrective bullish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current price: 1.17384

Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.17498
Targets: 1.17559, then 1.17966

Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.17228
Targets: 1.17053, then 1.16852

Note: Price is attempting to form a higher low, but the broader trend remains weak below the moving averages.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Corrective bullish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current price: 1.34554

Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.34665
Targets: 1.34841, then 1.35040

Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34373
Targets: 1.34174, then 1.33985

Note: The price is rebounding after a sharp decline, and staying above 1.34373 supports the temporary bullish scenario.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Corrective bullish within a broader downtrend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current price: 25,641.00

Primary scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,697.75
Targets: 25,731.61, then 25,817.00

Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 25,540.75
Targets: 25,436.00, then 25,328.00

Note: Price is rebounding from a strong low but remains below the moving averages. Only a breakout would confirm the continuation of the upward correction.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec)| 17:45

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

Here is a professional economic translation into English:

The U.S. dollar fell to around 98.2 on its index in the first trading day of 2026, starting the year on a weak note after recording its largest annual loss in eight years during 2025, with a decline of nearly 9%.

The dollar’s weakness reflects a combination of accumulating factors, most notably:

• Political uncertainty following the broad tariff measures implemented by the administration of President Donald Trump
• Rising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will move toward monetary policy easing
• A narrowing yield advantage between the dollar and other major currencies
• Investor concerns over the fiscal deficit and the independence of the Federal Reserve

In this context, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting revealed growing openness among policymakers to cut interest rates should inflation continue to ease, despite ongoing divisions regarding the timing and magnitude of any potential cuts.

Looking ahead, markets are closely monitoring:

• U.S. employment data
• Weekly jobless claims

These indicators are expected to provide clearer signals about the strength of the labor market and the likely path of interest rates in 2026.

Meanwhile, the issue of appointing a new Federal Reserve Chair remains under close scrutiny, as President Trump is expected to announce Jerome Powell’s successor early this year, amid speculation that the choice may lean toward a more dovish, accommodative stance on monetary policy.

Gold & Silver

Gold started 2026 on a strong footing, rising to around $4,340 per ounce in the first trading session, extending the exceptional bullish momentum it experienced throughout 2025.

The yellow metal ended last year with gains of nearly 65%, marking one of its strongest annual performances in more than four decades, with the rally accelerating from late April following the imposition of global U.S. tariffs.

Gold continues to receive strong support from several key factors:

• Persistent geopolitical uncertainty on the global stage
• Expectations of lower U.S. borrowing costs
• Strong and sustained purchases by central banks
• Renewed inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

This performance reflects investors’ continued shift toward gold as a primary hedging instrument at the start of a year filled with economic and political challenges.

Oil

Oil prices stabilized at the start of 2026, with:

• Brent crude trading near $61 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near $57 per barrel

This stability follows oil’s largest annual decline in five years during 2025, amid pressures stemming from ample supply and weak demand.

Market attention is currently focused on:

• The virtual OPEC+ meeting scheduled for January 4, where the group is expected to maintain the November agreement to halt production increases
• An assessment of elevated global inventory levels
• Demand developments, particularly as travel activity slows during the holiday season

At the same time, geopolitical risks continue to represent a potential source of price support, including:

• Escalating U.S. pressure on Venezuela’s energy sector
• Targeting of companies and vessels suspected of circumventing export restrictions
• Intensifying reciprocal strikes between Russia and Ukraine, affecting Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin remained stable near $88,000 in the first trading session of 2026, with low trading volumes due to the New Year holiday limiting price movements.

Despite the current sideways performance, investors are looking ahead to a year that could bring key catalysts for digital assets, driven by:

• Potential regulatory developments
• Technological progress in the blockchain sector
• Shifts in global monetary policies

Nevertheless, near-term price action remains constrained and cautious, as markets await the full return of liquidity in the coming days.