Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. Dollar Index has surpassed the 97-point level, supported by anticipation surrounding key upcoming U.S. economic data releases.
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Markets are currently pricing in more than two interest rate cuts this year, with expectations that the easing cycle could begin as early as June or July.
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Gold has retreated by 2%, as upward momentum wanes and trading activity remains muted during Asian market hours (Holiday).
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Oil prices are holding steady ahead of the resumption of U.S.–Iran talks, amid ongoing naval maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Bitcoin is testing the $67,500 support level as it attempts to regain bullish momentum.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bearish with a corrective rebound
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 4,907.42
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 4,923.14.
Targets: 4,960.56 followed by 5,000.30.
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 4,880.82.
Targets: 4,861.50 followed by 4,844.24.
Note: Gold remains under pronounced selling pressure, and any upward movement is considered corrective unless price sustains above 4,923.14.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bearish after failing to hold above resistance
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 63.174
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 63.555.
Targets: 63.923 followed by 64.270.
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 62.867.
Targets: 62.413 followed by 61.982.
Note: Trading below 63.555 keeps the bearish scenario dominant in the short term.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Clearly bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.18439
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.18601.
Targets: 1.18834 followed by 1.19041.
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 1.18303.
Targets: 1.18128 followed by 1.17926.
Note: The pair remains under resistance at 1.18601; staying below this level favors continued selling pressure.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Gradually bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.36122
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.36277.
Targets: 1.36453 followed by 1.36652.
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 1.35986.
Targets: 1.35787 followed by 1.35597.
Note: Price is trading below compressing moving averages; a break below 1.35986 would reinforce continued downward momentum.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Bearish with consolidation following a strong decline
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 24,625.25
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 24,673.50.
Targets: 24,792.75 followed by 24,900.50.
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 24,516.50.
Targets: 24,411.75 followed by 24,303.75.
Note: The overall trend remains bearish, and any current upward movement is considered corrective unless price sustains above 24,673.50.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

China and several Asian Markets: Closed in observance of the Lunar New Year holiday.
From Germany: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Month-over-Month – January | 10:00
From Canada: Consumer Price Index (CPI), Year-over-Year – January | 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

The U.S. Dollar Index rose above the 97 level on Tuesday, maintaining gains from the previous session as U.S. markets resumed trading following the Presidents’ Day holiday.
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Meanwhile, Chinese markets and several other Asian exchanges remained closed in observance of the Lunar New Year.
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This week, investors are closely monitoring a series of key economic releases, including:

The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting

The advance estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
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Although recent inflation data came in softer than expected—reinforcing expectations of monetary easing—the resilience of the labor market continues to provide relative support for the dollar.

Job growth recorded its strongest increase in over a year, while the unemployment rate declined.
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Markets are currently pricing in:

An initial rate cut in June or July, with approximately 62 basis points of cumulative easing anticipated through 2026

Roughly a 50% probability of a third rate cut
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This divergence between moderating inflation and a robust labor market is keeping the dollar in a balanced range, as investors await clearer signals from upcoming economic data.

• Gold & Silver:

Gold declined by more than 2%, trading below the $4,950 per ounce level and marking its second consecutive session of losses.
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The pullback was driven by:

Reduced trading volumes amid Asian market holidays

Profit-taking following a strong rally

Relative stability in the U.S. dollar
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Despite the recent decline, the underlying supportive factors remain intact, including:

Ongoing central bank purchases

Persistent geopolitical risks

Expectations of interest rate cuts later this year
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Accordingly, the current weakness is widely viewed as a technical correction within a medium-term uptrend, rather than a structural shift in the broader trend.

• Oil:

Oil prices remained broadly stable, with Brent crude trading near $68 per barrel and WTI hovering in the $63–64 range.
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Markets are closely monitoring the resumption of U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations, amid heightened regional tensions marked by Iranian naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz following the deployment of a second U.S. aircraft carrier to the region.
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On the diplomatic front, Iranian officials have signaled a willingness to scale back uranium enrichment levels in exchange for the full lifting of sanctions—an outcome that could reduce the geopolitical risk premium should tangible progress materialize.
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Conversely, reports indicate that the OPEC+ alliance is considering resuming production increases in April, potentially adding further pressure to a market already facing a growing supply surplus.
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As a result, oil prices are currently navigating between geopolitical support and structural supply-side headwinds.

Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin pulled back to retest the $67,500 support zone before staging a tentative recovery.
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Current technical levels indicate:

Key support: $67,000–$67,500

Near-term resistance: $69,500
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A sustained breakout above the $69,500 resistance level would likely reestablish upward momentum and reinforce the bullish bias.
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Conversely, failure to overcome this barrier may keep the cryptocurrency exposed to near-term corrective downside pressure.