Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

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The U.S. Dollar Index falls below 97.5 following Trump’s statements regarding raising tariffs.
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Escalating trade tensions weigh on the U.S. currency.
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Gold jumps to its highest level in more than three weeks.
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Oil declines amid cautious optimism about nuclear talks with Iran.
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Bitcoin loses 5% as bearish momentum returns.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Strong upward momentum within a well-defined ascending channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 5,154.46
Primary Scenario: buy upon a confirmed break above 5,181.18.
Targets: 5,196.82 followed by 5,218.60.
Alternative Scenario: sell on a decisive break below 5,138.87.
Targets: 5,119.55 followed by 5,102.29.
Note: The broader trend structure remains upward. Any near-term decline is considered corrective unless price establishes sustained trading below the 5,138 support level.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Corrective downward move following a strong upward wave
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 65.723
Primary Scenario :Buy above 66.123.
Targets: 66.482 followed by 66.830.
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 65.332.
Targets: 64.973 followed by 64.542.
Note: Oil is currently in a corrective phase. A break above 66.123 would resume the bullish scenario, while a break below 65.332 could extend the decline toward lower demand zones.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Short-term upward move within a broader bearish correction
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.18307
Primary Scenario: Buy above 1.18384.
Targets: 1.18645 followed by 1.18852.
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 1.18114.
Targets: 1.17939 followed by 1.17737.
Note: Price has rebounded strongly from support. Sustained trading above 1.18114 would maintain positive momentum.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Corrective upward move following a downward wave
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.35317
Primary Scenario: Buy above 1.35391.
Targets: 1.35567 followed by 1.35766.
Alternative Scenario :Sell below 1.35128.
Targets: 1.34900 followed by 1.34720.
Note: The pair is attempting to form a higher low. Sustained trading above 1.35128 supports continued upside, while a break below would renew selling pressure.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Sideways with a slight upward bias within a well-defined consolidation range
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 24,846.50
Primary Scenario :Buy above 24,927.25.
Targets: 25,046.50 followed by 25,154.25.
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 24,770.25.
Targets: 24,665.50 followed by 24,557.50.
Note: Price is trading within a sideways range. A break above 24,927 would resume upward momentum, while a break below 24,770 could extend the downward corrective phase.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

The U.S. Dollar Index declined below the 97.5 level, surrendering a substantial portion of the previous week’s gains, after President Donald Trump signaled plans to increase global tariff rates from 10% to 15%, following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the “reciprocal” tariff framework.
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The announcement reintroduced policy uncertainty into financial markets, particularly amid:

A European proposal to suspend ratification of a trade agreement with Washington.

India’s decision to defer negotiations on an interim trade arrangement with the United States.

Ongoing ambiguity regarding the formal signing of the executive order.
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Although the U.S. Trade Representative affirmed that existing trade agreements with China, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea would remain intact, investor sentiment remained cautious, reflecting heightened sensitivity to trade policy risks.
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Historically, the dollar tends to face downside pressure during episodes of elevated political or trade-related uncertainty, as global investors scale back exposure to U.S. assets and adjust risk allocations accordingly.

• Gold:

Gold advanced by approximately 1%, climbing above $5,160 per ounce to mark its highest level in over three weeks.

Key drivers:

Heightened concerns surrounding tariff policy.

Renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

Increased hedging demand and capital inflows into safe-haven assets.
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The move appears to be primarily defensive positioning rather than speculative buying, as investors seek portfolio protection amid persistent uncertainty over the trajectory of U.S. trade policy.

• Oil:

Oil prices posted modest declines, with Brent crude trading around $70 per barrel and WTI near $65 per barrel.
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The market is currently pricing in a balance between competing catalysts:

Upside risk factors:

Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region.

Ongoing concerns over maritime traffic disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transit corridor.

Downside pressures:

Iranian officials signaling that a diplomatic resolution “acceptable to all parties” may be approaching.

Indications that any potential military engagement would likely be contained and limited in scope.

Demand-side headwinds linked to higher tariffs and their potential drag on global economic growth.
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Market participants are now focused on the upcoming meeting in Geneva on Thursday, which could prove pivotal in determining the magnitude and direction of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude benchmarks.

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin declined by approximately 5% after failing to sustain a breakout above the $68,000 level.
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The current price action suggests:

A resurgence in selling momentum.

Difficulty in reclaiming and holding above the $66,000 threshold.

A transition into a bearish consolidation phase.
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Weaker global risk appetite, coupled with heightened political volatility, has contributed to downside pressure across digital assets, reinforcing the broader risk-off tone in financial markets.