Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. Dollar Index rises above 97.8 amid ongoing trade uncertainty.
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The administration of Donald Trump announces a new 10% tariff, with a threat to increase it to 15%.
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Gold retreats following a strong rally despite continued geopolitical tensions.
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Oil holds near its highest level in six months.
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Bitcoin fails to sustain levels above $66,000 and continues its negative volatility.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Strong bullish bias within a well-defined ascending channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 5,168.82
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 5,192.96 Targets: 5,208.60 followed by 5,230.38
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 5,150.65
Targets: 5,131.33 followed by 5,114.07
Note: Gold remains within a broader bullish structure. However, a sustained move below 5,150 could trigger a deeper corrective pullback before the prevailing uptrend potentially resumes.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Medium-term bullish trend with an ongoing corrective pullback
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 66.694
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 67.108
Targets: 67.467 followed by 67.815
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 65.957
Targets: 65.527 followed by 64.973
Note: The broader trend remains upward. The current downside movement is viewed as corrective in nature unless 65.957 is breached, which could signal a deeper retracement.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Sideways with mild bearish pressure
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.17803
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.17911
Targets: 1.18173 followed by 1.18379
Alternative: Sell on a decisive break below 1.17641
Targets: 1.17467 followed by 1.17265
Note: Price action remains confined within a narrow range. A breakout from this consolidation zone is likely to provide clearer directional bias for the next move.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Sideways with a bullish bias following a rebound
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34877
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.35032
Targets: 1.35208 followed by 1.35407
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 1.34740
Targets: 1.34542 followed by 1.34352
Note: The pair is attempting to form a higher low. Maintaining levels above 1.34740 supports a gradual upward bias.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Sideways with a bearish bias within a well-defined range
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 24,836.75
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 24,927.25
Targets: 25,046.50 followed by 25,154.25
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 24,770.25
Targets: 24,665.50 followed by 24,557.50
Note: Price is trading within a consolidation range. A breakout above 24,927 would signal a resumption of upward momentum, while a break below 24,770 could trigger a broader bearish wave.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

CB Consumer Confidence Index (February) – 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

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The U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the 97.8 level, rebounding from the previous session’s pressure as markets continued to reprice U.S. trade policy risks.
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The administration of Donald Trump announced the implementation of a new 10% tariff effective today, with a subsequent threat to raise it to 15%.
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Trump also warned of imposing harsher duties on countries that “manipulate” their trade agreements.
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These developments have heightened uncertainty, particularly following:

A ruling by the Supreme Court overturning several previously imposed tariffs.

A lawsuit filed by FedEx seeking reimbursement of duties paid earlier.

Concerns over the potential renegotiation or collapse of certain existing trade agreements.
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Despite the prevailing uncertainty, the dollar benefited from hedging flows and improved investor appetite for U.S. assets relative to other currencies.

• Gold:

Gold retreated below the $5,190 per ounce mark after posting four straight sessions of gains, even as:

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated

Trade risks persist

Defensive (safe-haven) demand continues to underpin prices.
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Nonetheless, the dollar’s short-term rebound encouraged a wave of profit-taking following the recent upward move.
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At present, the market appears to be balancing between:

Escalating tariff risks, which provide underlying support to gold

The dollar’s relative firmness, which is capping further upside momentum.

• Oil:

Crude oil prices consolidated near six-month highs, with Brent Crude trading around $71 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate holding close to $66 per barrel.
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Price support is primarily driven by:

Heightened geopolitical risk amid the prospect of military escalation between Washington and Tehran

Remarks by Donald Trump cautioning that Iran could face severe consequences should nuclear negotiations collapse

Earlier supply disruptions that have sustained an embedded geopolitical risk premium in crude benchmarks.
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Conversely, market participants remain mindful of the potential emergence of a supply overhang later this year, alongside the adverse implications of newly introduced tariffs on global demand projections.
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Investors’ focus now shifts to Thursday’s round of U.S.–Iran negotiations, which may prove pivotal in shaping the trajectory of the forward risk premium in energy markets.

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin failed to sustain trading above the $66,000 threshold, retreating once again and entering a phase of negative consolidation.
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The current technical backdrop points to:

Fading bullish momentum

Difficulty in reclaiming key resistance levels

Continued sensitivity of digital assets to volatility stemming from global policy developments.