Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized near 97.8 amid rising expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer.
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President Donald Trump’s new 10% tariff has taken effect, with indications it could be increased to 15%.
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Gold advanced, supported by heightened trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
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Oil prices rebounded as markets await the outcome of U.S.–Iran talks.
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Bitcoin is attempting to recover from the $62,500 level but continues to face strong resistance.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bullish within a clearly defined ascending channel, with a short-term corrective pullback
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 5,185.79
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 5,203.87
Targets: 5,219.50 followed by 5,241.29
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 5,161.55
Targets: 5,142.23 followed by 5,124.97
Note: Gold continues to maintain a constructive bullish structure. A sustained move below 5,161 would signal the potential for a deeper corrective phase before the broader uptrend resumes.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Sideways consolidation within a medium-range band following a prior upward move
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 66.164
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed break above 66.595
Targets: 66.954 followed by 67.302
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 65.804
Targets: 65.444 followed by 65.014
Note: Price action remains confined between clearly defined support and resistance levels. A breakout on either side is likely to determine the next directional move.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Sideways bias with an attempted bullish recovery
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.17855
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed break above 1.17961
Targets: 1.18222 followed by 1.18429
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 1.17691
Targets: 1.17516 followed by 1.17314
Note: Price action remains confined within a narrow consolidation range. A sustained move above 1.17960 would provide a clearer bullish impulse and potentially accelerate upside momentum.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Sideways with a slight bullish bias following a rebound
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34877
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed break above 1.35032
Targets: 1.35208 followed by 1.35407
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 1.34740
Targets: 1.34542 followed by 1.34352
Note: The pair is attempting to form a higher low. Sustained trading above 1.34740 supports a gradual upward bias and maintains the potential for further gains.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Short-term bullish following a breakout from a consolidation range
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,110.75
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed break above 25,162.75
Targets: 25,282.00 followed by 25,389.75
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 25,005.75
Targets: 24,916.10 followed by 24,793.00
Note: Price has regained upward momentum after breaching 25,005. Sustained trading above this level supports continued bullish bias, whereas a break below would likely return the market to the previous consolidation range.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the Eurozone:
Consumer Price Index (CPI), YoY – January – 13:00
From the United States:
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories – 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

The U.S. Dollar Index held steady at 97.8 following gains in the previous session, supported by increasingly hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
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Susan Collins indicated that keeping interest rates unchanged “for some time” may be the most appropriate course of action, particularly given:

Persistent inflation risks

A relatively resilient labor market

The need for additional data before making any policy adjustments
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Similarly, Thomas Barkin stated that the current policy stance is well positioned to manage economic risks.
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Despite these remarks, markets continue to price in approximately three rate cuts this year, highlighting a divergence between market expectations and Federal Reserve guidance.
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On the trade front, the new 10% global tariff announced by Donald Trump came into effect on Tuesday, with the administration reportedly seeking to raise it to 15%, bringing trade uncertainty back into focus.

• Gold:

Gold advanced to around $5,180 per ounce, recovering part of its previous losses.
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The rebound was supported by:

Renewed trade tensions

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of tariff measures

Persistent geopolitical risks related to Iran
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However, upside momentum remains constrained by diminishing expectations of near-term monetary easing, which has lent support to the U.S. dollar and exerted partial pressure on the precious metal.
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At present, the market appears to be in equilibrium between geopolitical and trade-related safe-haven demand on one side, and monetary policy headwinds stemming from the Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance on the other.

• Oil:

Oil prices rebounded, with Brent crude trading near $71 per barrel and WTI hovering around $66 per barrel.
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Market participants are closely monitoring the third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran in Geneva.
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Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Tehran would do “whatever is necessary” to reach an agreement, while Donald Trump reiterated his preference for a diplomatic resolution, coupled with a clear warning regarding the consequences of failure.
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A key flashpoint remains the Strait of Hormuz, where any escalation could trigger significant supply disruptions, given its critical role in global oil transit.
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At the same time, investors continue to assess the potential impact of newly implemented tariffs on global demand expectations, particularly if trade measures broaden further.

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin failed to sustain levels above $65,000, retreating to as low as $62,500 before initiating a tentative rebound.
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At present:

The cryptocurrency is encountering strong resistance near the $66,500 level.

Failure to secure a decisive breakout above this threshold could expose the market to renewed downside pressure.
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Digital assets remain highly sensitive to shifts in global policy dynamics and broader market risk appetite, with macro-driven volatility continuing to dictate near-term price action.