Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

The US Dollar Index is moving sideways as it awaits U.S. inflation data.
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The probability of an interest rate cut in June has declined to 50%.
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Gold is on track to post new weekly gains.
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Oil is stable ahead of the resumption of nuclear talks and the OPEC+ meeting.
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Bitcoin is attempting to strengthen its gains above $68,000.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Sideways within an ascending channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $5,185.71
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $5,191.51
Targets: $5,206.65, then $5,222.29
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below $5,164.33
Targets: $5,145.02, then $5,127.75
Note: Gold is trading within a clear consolidation range; a decisive break of either boundary is likely to trigger a stronger move in the breakout direction.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Downward with attempts to stabilize
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $65.185
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $65.4
96Targets: $65.856, then $66.204
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below $64.706
Targets: $64.346, then $63.916
Note: The overall trend remains bearish, and any short-term rally will require a break above $65.856 to confirm a shift in momentum.

EURUSD

Trend: Sideways with a slight bearish bias
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.18038
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.18112
Targets: 1.18370, then 1.18580
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.17842
Targets: 1.17668, then 1.17466
Note: The price is trading within a defined range; a decisive break of either boundary is likely to determine the next directional move.

GBPUSD

Trend: Bearish following a key support breakdown
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34924
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35034
Targets: 1.35211, then 1.35410
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.34743
Targets: 1.34544, then 1.34354
Note: The trend has clearly turned bearish after a strong impulsive candle. Any rebound should be considered corrective as long as price remains below 1.35211.

NAS100

Trend: Corrective bearish after a strong support break
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,027.00
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,097.75
Targets: 25,217.25, then 25,324.75
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 24,940.75
Targets: 24,836.00, then 24,728.00
Note: The price has broken the previous upward structure and entered a sharp downtrend. Any current rally should be viewed as corrective unless a sustained move above 25,217 occurs.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
Producer Price Index (MoM) – January | 16:30
Producer Price Index (YoY) – January | 16:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

The U.S. Dollar Index remained stable near 97.8, trading within a tight range throughout the week as investors await key inflation data—particularly the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)—which is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations for the second quarter.
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Consensus forecasts point to a moderation in wholesale inflation to 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.5% in December. A softer reading could revive discussions regarding the timing and pace of the Fed’s initial rate cut.
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From a policy perspective, Austan Goolsbee suggested that monetary easing would be warranted should disinflationary trends persist, while Governor Stephen Miran has expressed support for a more accommodative policy trajectory in 2026.
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Despite this, market-implied probabilities for a June rate cut have declined to approximately 50%, with expectations for a third rate reduction this year having largely been priced out.

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On the trade front, newly imposed 10% global tariffs introduced by Donald Trump have come into effect, with the possibility of increasing them to 15% for certain countries following a Supreme Court ruling against broad reciprocal tariffs. This development has kept trade policy uncertainty elevated.
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Overall, the U.S. dollar appears poised to close the month on a positive note, snapping a three-month losing streak.

• Gold:

Gold advanced to approximately $5,190 per ounce, extending gains for a third consecutive session and positioning for a fourth straight weekly increase.
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The current support stems from:

Persistent geopolitical risks

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy

A seasonal tightening in global liquidity conditions
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Despite reduced market-implied odds of a June rate cut, the metal remains underpinned by expectations of monetary easing in the second half of the year, alongside sustained official sector demand from central banks.

• Oil:

Oil prices remained broadly stable ahead of the renewed nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with Brent Crude trading around $70 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate fluctuating within the $65–66 range.
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Tehran characterized the latest round of discussions in Geneva as constructive, whereas a U.S. official signaled a degree of dissatisfaction. Both parties agreed to reconvene for technical-level talks next week in Vienna.
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However, significant sticking points persist—most notably Iran’s refusal to relocate its enriched uranium stockpiles abroad. At the same time, ongoing U.S. military deployments in the region continue to underpin a geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.
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Market participants are also focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where supply policy will be assessed against the backdrop of earlier projections pointing to a potentially larger market surplus in 2026.
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Despite the current consolidation, oil prices remain on course for a modest weekly loss.

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin has rebounded above the $68,000 mark and is currently stabilizing north of $66,250.
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A decisive break and sustained consolidation above $68,800 would strengthen upside momentum, potentially paving the way for a continuation toward higher resistance zones.
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However, an inability to hold above that level may prompt a retreat into the previous consolidation range.