Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

• A sharp escalation in the conflict in the Middle East is driving investors toward safe-haven assets.
• The U.S. dollar rises to 98 before pulling back amid heightened market volatility.
• Gold surpasses $5,350, supported by defensive demand.
• Oil surges significantly amid an effective disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Bitcoin attempts to stabilize above $66,000.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Strong upward bias within an ascending channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 5,352.94
Primary Scenario: Buy above 5,369.26
Targets: 5,384.90, followed by 5,406.68
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 5,326.95
Targets: 5,307.63, followed by 5,290.37
Note: Gold maintains solid upward momentum within the ascending channel. Any pullback toward 5,326 would be considered a technical retest, provided that 5,307.63 remains intact.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Strong upward momentum following a break of a prior bearish structure
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 70.35
Primary Scenario: Buy above 70.84
Targets: 71.45, followed by 72.30
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 69.18
Targets: 68.42, followed by 67.75
Note: Oil is in a strong impulsive wave. Any pullback holding above 69.18 remains within the scope of a normal corrective move.

EURUSD

Trend: Sideways with a bullish bias following a strong rebound
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.17910
Primary Scenario: Buy above 1.18117
Targets: 1.18236, followed by 1.18430
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 1.17812
Targets: 1.17712, followed by 1.17596
Note: Price has moved back above the pivot zone. Holding above 1.17812 supports the continuation of the rebound.

GBPUSD

Trend: Downward with a corrective rebound
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34407
Primary Scenario: Buy above 1.34812
Targets: 1.35042, followed by 1.35325
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 1.34312
Targets: 1.34073, followed by 1.33796
Note: The pair remains under clear selling pressure, and the current rebound is a corrective move within the overall downtrend.

NAS100

Trend: Downward following a strong break of the prior uptrend structure
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 24,819.25
Primary Scenario: Buy above 25,039.00
Targets: 25,146.75, followed by 25,249.98
Alternative Scenario: Sell below 24,762.75
Targets: 24,658.00, followed by 24,550.00
Note: The trend has shifted to bearish after breaking the moving averages and retesting. Any current upside is considered corrective unless a sustained break above 25,039 occurs.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February) | 17:45
ISM Manufacturing PMI (February) | 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.5% to reach the 98 level at the start of Monday trading before partially retreating, as investors rushed into safe-haven assets following an unprecedented escalation in the Middle East.
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Over the weekend, joint military strikes carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran resulted in the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, triggering broad regional escalation.
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Tehran retaliated by targeting U.S. interests across several regional countries, heightening the risk of the region sliding into a wider confrontation.
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The escalation boosted demand for the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, although elevated uncertainty kept trading highly volatile.
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On the monetary policy front, the latest U.S. Producer Price Index data indicated stronger-than-expected inflationary pressures, complicating the outlook for interest rate cuts.
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Nevertheless, markets continue to price in two rate cuts this year, amid expectations that geopolitical disruptions could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance later on.

• Gold:

Gold surged by more than 1% to break above the $5,350 per ounce level, marking its highest level in over a month.
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The rally was driven by:

Escalating hostilities in the Middle East

Disruptions to shipping lanes in the Gulf

Fears of a broader regional conflict
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The precious metal is likely to remain firmly supported as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, particularly amid the possibility that the conflict could extend for several weeks, according to statements by Donald Trump

• Oil:

Oil prices recorded a sharp surge, with Brent crude trading at $76 per barrel and WTI hovering between $70–$72 per barrel.
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Markets witnessed an effective disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade passes.
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Vessel-tracking data indicate a buildup of oil tankers on both sides of the strait, amid concerns over potential targeting or difficulties in securing safe passage.
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Although OPEC+ approved a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April, continued transportation disruptions could limit the impact of this supply boost.
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A sustained rise in oil prices could:

Reignite global inflationary pressures

Weigh on economic growth

Curb demand over the medium term

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin climbed back above the $66,000 level and is currently holding above this threshold.
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If the price manages to sustain a move above $67,200, further upside extension could follow.
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However, should heightened volatility return to global markets, the cryptocurrency may revert to a broader consolidation range.