Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar outperformed gold and other safe-haven assets.
• Turmoil intensified after oil tankers were effectively prevented from entering the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil prices surged above $110 per barrel as the war entered its second week.
• Expectations are growing for a delay in interest rate cuts amid rising concerns over stagflation.
• Bitcoin fell by approximately 2% in just 15 minutes on Sunday.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Bearish with a potential corrective rebound
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 5,094.97
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 5,107.07
Targets: 5,122.70, then 5,144.49
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 5,064.75
Targets: 5,045.43, then 5,028.17
Note: Gold has recently experienced a sharp downward move, and any near-term upside is likely to be viewed as a technical rebound or retest of supply zones before the market determines its next directional move.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Strong bullish trend with a minor correction
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 113.44
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 115.85
Targets: 118.64, then 121.77
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 110.56
Targets: 108.62, then 106.65
Note: Oil remains in a strong uptrend driven by sustained momentum, and the current pullbacks are viewed as corrective moves within the broader bullish trend.

EURUSD

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.15272
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.15356
Targets: 1.15505, then 1.15624
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.15082
Targets: 1.14982, then 1.14687
Note: The broader trend remains downward following a break below key support levels, and any current rebound is likely to remain within a corrective phase.

GBPUSD

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.33076
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.33153
Targets: 1.33511, then 1.33795
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.32782
Targets: 1.32542, then 1.32266
Note: The pair is trading below key moving averages with sellers maintaining control, and holding below 1.3315 keeps downside pressure intact.

NAS100

Trend: Strong Downtrend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 24,086.25
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 24,124.50
Targets: 24,243.75, then 24,351.25
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 23,967.25
Targets: 23,862.75, then 23,734.50
Note: The index is trading under clear selling pressure after breaking through significant support levels. Any upward movement at this stage is likely to be a temporary corrective bounce.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to roughly 99.5 on Monday, approaching its highest level in over three months as oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel.
• The move reflects mounting concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lead to lasting disruptions in global energy supplies.
• Since the outbreak of hostilities last week, investors have reassessed inflation expectations, reinforcing market bets that the Federal Reserve may postpone planned interest rate cuts.
• The dollar also drew support from safe-haven flows as the Iranian conflict entered its second week with no clear resolution in sight, while President Donald Trump called for Tehran’s unconditional surrender.
• Meanwhile, Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as the successor to his father, Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader, indicating that hardline factions continue to hold firm control over the country’s leadership.

• Gold:

• Gold prices fell to around $5,100 per ounce on Monday morning, as the strengthening U.S. dollar and diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts offset safe-haven demand driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

• Oil:

• Crude oil prices jumped by as much as 22% at the open, surpassing $110 per barrel and extending last week’s record rally of 36%. Brent Crude trading around $115 and West Texas Intermediate near $113.
• Market disruptions intensified after oil tankers were effectively prevented from entering the Strait of Hormuz, prompting several Middle Eastern producers—including Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates—to scale back crude oil production.
• The conflict has already disrupted nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies, as Iran targets vessels along the critical shipping route.
• The sharp surge in energy prices could further complicate the monetary policy outlook for the Federal Reserve, reinforcing expectations that interest rate cuts may be delayed and increasing the risk of stagflation, particularly following last week’s weak employment report.

• Kuwait—the fifth-largest oil producer in OPEC—announced precautionary cuts to crude production and refinery output, citing Iranian threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Officials in the oil sector said output from Iraq’s three main oil fields has dropped by about 70%, falling to 1.3 million barrels per day from 4.3 million bpd prior to the Iranian war.
• Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates said it is carefully managing offshore production to accommodate storage capacity, while onshore operations continue as normal.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin fell by approximately 2% in just 15 minutes on Sunday.