Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

• The U.S. Dollar Index falls below the 99 level as demand for safe-haven assets weakens.
• U.S. statements indicate a potential end to the war with Iran in the near term.
• Oil prices decline following a strong rally, after signals suggesting a possible de-escalation.
• Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data this week to determine the future path of interest rates.
• Gold prices retreat as geopolitical concerns ease.
• Bitcoin records its lowest level in seven days as market volatility persists.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Current Price: 5,175
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 5,193
Targets: 5,209 then 5,231
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 5,151
Targets: 5,128 then 5,114
Note: Gold is currently moving within a short-term ascending channel, and holding above 5,150 supports the continuation of the bullish trend.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Current Price: 84.13
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 87.94
Targets: 90.72 then 93.86
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 83.14
Targets: 80.71 then 78.74
Note: Oil has entered a downward corrective phase following a strong rally, and a break below 83 could open the door for deeper downside.

EURUSD

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Current Price: 1.1625
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 1.1635
Targets: 1.1650 then 1.1661
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1607
Targets: 1.1597 then 1.1586
Note: The pair is in a strong recovery wave after rebounding from the weekly low, and holding above 1.1600 maintains the bullish bias.

GBPUSD

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Current Price: 1.3435
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 1.3452
Targets: 1.3488 then 1.3516
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3415
Targets: 1.3391 then 1.3363
Note: The pair is moving within a clear upward momentum after breaking a strong resistance, and any current pullback is considered a corrective move.

NAS100

Trend: Corrective Bullish
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Current Price: 24,969
Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 25,038
Targets: 25,157 then 25,262
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 24,881
Targets: 24,807 then 24,645
Note: The index bounced strongly from demand zones, and holding above 24,880 supports the continuation of the upward corrective move.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
Existing Home Sales (February) — 17:00

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index remained below the 99 level on Tuesday following a sharp decline in the previous session, as safe-haven inflows weakened after indications that the war in the Middle East could end sooner than previously expected.
• On Monday, Donald Trump stated that the U.S. military operation in Iran could be a “short trip” and a “short-term mission,” noting that the campaign is progressing ahead of the initial timetable, which had been estimated at four to five weeks.
• These remarks helped ease some of the geopolitical concerns that had supported the dollar in recent days, as the escalation of the conflict and the surge in oil prices had previously boosted demand for the U.S. currency as a safe-haven asset.

• At the same time, investors are awaiting key U.S. inflation data this week, which could provide fresh signals on the future path of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
• These data releases include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due on Friday.
• The recent rise in energy prices had raised concerns about a renewed buildup of inflationary pressures, prompting markets earlier to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts later this year.

• Gold:

• Gold prices fell to around $5,130 per ounce on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session after remarks by the U.S. president eased concerns surrounding the conflict in the Middle East.
• The decline in safe-haven demand reduced the support that gold had received in recent days, particularly as markets stabilized somewhat following signals that the war could end in the near term.

• Oil:

• Oil prices declined notably after the strong gains recorded in the previous session, with Brent crude trading near $88 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $85 per barrel.
• The pullback came after the U.S. president indicated that Washington may ease certain oil-related sanctions, in addition to plans to deploy naval escorts for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to stabilize global energy flows.
• Further downward pressure on prices came after G7 finance ministers stated that the group is prepared to release oil from strategic reserves if necessary.
• Oil prices had surged earlier after several Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, temporarily reduced output due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the rapid filling of storage facilities.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin fell to around $65.6K, marking its lowest level in seven days, with the cryptocurrency declining by approximately 2.4% despite the sharp rise in oil prices in recent weeks.
• Recent price action suggests that Bitcoin has not functioned as an effective hedge during the current geopolitical crisis, as the asset declined alongside broader global market volatility.
• At the same time, some traders have begun shifting toward digital assets linked to the energy sector, a new trend emerging amid heightened volatility in the oil market.