Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

• The U.S. Dollar Index stabilizes near the 99 level amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
• Conflicting statements from U.S. officials are increasing uncertainty in financial markets.
• Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have been scaled back to just one cut this year.
• Oil prices decline following reports about the potential release of large strategic oil reserves.
• Gold continues to rise, supported by strong safe-haven demand.
• Bitcoin begins a new recovery wave above $68,500.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 5200
Bullish Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 5227
Targets: 5252, then 5282
Bearish Scenario: Sell on a break below 5184
Targets: 5159, then 5132
Note: Gold is currently moving in a consolidation phase following a strong rally. A break above 5227 could trigger a new bullish wave.

CRUDE OIL

Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 83.05
Bullish Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 85.75
Targets: 88.81, then 91.31
Bearish Scenario: Sell on a break below 81.05
Targets: 77.45, then 74.04
Note: Oil remains in a short-term downtrend.

EURUSD

Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.1627
Bullish Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1643
Targets: 1.1664, then 1.1686
Bearish Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1603
Targets: 1.1578, then 1.1553
Note: The pair is moving within a short-term descending channel, but the recent rebound from the demand zone has generated corrective bullish momentum. Holding above 1.1600 could push the price to retest the 1.1640–1.1660 area.

GBPUSD

Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.3447
Bullish Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3461
Targets: 1.3484, then 1.3513
Bearish Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3424
Targets: 1.3393, then 1.3368
Note: The pair is experiencing a bullish correction within a sideways structure following the previous downtrend, facing near-term resistance around 1.3460. A breakout above this level could open the way for further gains toward 1.3485–1.3510.

NAS100

Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,113
Bullish Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,215
Targets: 25,401, then 25,542
Bearish Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,016
Targets: 24,864, then 24,743
Note: The index is maintaining bullish momentum after a strong rebound from the demand zones, while continuing to trade within a short-term consolidation range. Holding above 25,000 keeps the positive scenario intact, aiming for higher peaks.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – MoM (February) — 15:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – YoY (February) — 15:30
Core Consumer Price Index (Excluding Food and Energy) – MoM (February) — 15:30
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories — 17:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index traded near the 99 level on Wednesday, maintaining the gains recorded in the previous session, as rising uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East supported demand for the U.S. currency as a safe-haven asset.
• On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that the United States and Israel had launched their most powerful strikes on Iran to date, stating that military operations would continue until the Islamic Republic is fully weakened. This escalation followed earlier remarks by President Donald Trump suggesting that the conflict could end soon.
• Market uncertainty was further heightened by conflicting signals from U.S. officials. The White House denied that the U.S. Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting an earlier post by U.S Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, which was later deleted.

• At the same time, investors are awaiting the key U.S. inflation data due later today, which could provide additional signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.
• Expectations indicate that inflation will remain well above the central bank’s target, even before accounting for the potential impact of the current war.
• Traders have already scaled back their expectations for monetary easing this year to just one interest rate cut.

• Gold:

• Gold prices rose to around $5,210 per ounce on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate.
• Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong amid concerns over a potential expansion of the regional conflict, as well as ongoing uncertainty surrounding the war’s developments and its possible impact on the global economy.

• Oil:

• Oil prices declined following a period of sharp volatility, with Brent crude trading at around $87 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at approximately $83 per barrel.
• The pullback came after reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering the largest coordinated release of strategic oil reserves in its history in an effort to stabilize global markets.
• The size of the potential release could exceed the 182 million barrels injected into the market in 2022 following the Russia–Ukraine war.
• Nevertheless, markets remain on edge due to the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while major Middle Eastern producers have collectively reduced output by more than 6 million barrels per day.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin has begun a new recovery wave above the $68,500 level after a period of decline over the past few days.
• The price is currently moving within a consolidation phase, with the potential for continued bullish momentum if it manages to break above the $70,500 resistance level, which could open the door for further gains in the cryptocurrency market.