Daily Market Analysis

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The U.S. dollar index remains stable around the 98.4 level following a volatile trading session marked by heightened geopolitical tensions.

Gold prices are holding near a one-week high, supported by sustained safe-haven demand.

Crude oil prices are trading in a narrow range amid abundant supply conditions and a diminishing influence of Venezuelan output on global markets.

Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, trading above $92,000 as it approaches a significant technical resistance level near $95,000.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Uptrend within a rising channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 4,463.07
Primary Scenario (Long): Buy on a breakout above 4,477.90
Targets: 4,489.36, then 4,504.47
Alternative Scenario (Short): Sell on a break below 4,451.03
Targets: 4,436.64, then 4,420.05
Note: Gold is maintaining positive momentum within the ascending channel. A break below 4,451 could trigger a deeper corrective move.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Corrective uptrend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 57.922
Primary Scenario (Long): Buy on a breakout above 58.131
Targets: 58.491, then 58.839
Alternative Scenario (Short): Sell on a break below 57.300
Targets: 56.843, then 56.217
Note: Crude oil is attempting to consolidate its recent rebound, but the area around 58.13 represents a key resistance level.

EURUSD

Trend: Corrective uptrend within a larger downtrend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.17330
Primary Scenario (Long): Buy on a breakout above 1.17450
Targets: 1.17711, then 1.17918
Alternative Scenario (Short): Sell on a break below 1.17180
Targets: 1.17006, then 1.16804
Note: The pair has bounced strongly from recent lows, but it remains below key resistance levels. Confirmation requires a clear breakout.

GBPUSD

Trend: Corrective uptrend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.35509
Primary Scenario (Long): Buy on a breakout above 1.35709
Targets: 1.35886, then 1.36085
Alternative Scenario (Short): Sell on a break below 1.35418
Targets: 1.35219, then 1.35029
Note: The upward move is strong but follows a preceding downtrend. A break below 1.35418 could trigger renewed selling pressure.

NAS100

Trend: Corrective uptrend within a larger downtrend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,647.00
Primary Scenario (Long): Buy on a breakout above 25,706.75
Targets: 25,826.00, then 25,933.75
Alternative Scenario (Short): Sell on a break below 25,553.24
Targets: 25,445.00, then 25,336.75
Note: The current rally is corrective following a strong decline, and the price remains below key moving averages. A breakout above 25,706.75 is required to confirm the continuation of the correction.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
S&P Global Services PMI – December | 17:45

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

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The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized around 98.4 points on Tuesday, following a previous session characterized by sharp volatility driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty over the future path of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
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During Monday’s session, the dollar rose by as much as 0.4% before paring gains and closing approximately 0.1% lower, as investors assessed the implications of the U.S. military operation in Venezuela. Initial concerns about a broader escalation eased as trading progressed.
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The dollar also faced additional pressure after the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data, which indicated the steepest contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity since 2024 in December, reinforcing concerns over a slowdown in the industrial sector.

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In this context, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari noted that risks of rising unemployment remain present and that interest rates may be close to the neutral level, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve could be compelled to implement additional rate cuts later this year.
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Nevertheless, markets continue to price in a probability exceeding 80% that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting this month, as policymakers await clearer signals from labor market data.
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Attention is now focused on a series of U.S. employment indicators, culminating in the release of the December jobs report on Friday, which is widely viewed as the next key determinant for the direction of monetary policy.

Gold & Silver

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Gold prices traded near $4,440 per ounce on Tuesday, maintaining strong gains and hovering close to a one-week high after the metal posted a sharp 2.7% surge during Monday’s session.
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The rally was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following political developments in Venezuela, after a U.S. military operation that led to the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro, alongside subsequent statements warning of the possibility of a second strike should U.S. demands not be met.
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Gold continues to benefit from a supportive mix of factors, including rising geopolitical risks, elevated global political uncertainty, expectations of continued U.S. monetary easing, and sustained investor demand for defensive assets.

Oil

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Oil prices traded within a narrow range, with Brent crude hovering near $61 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $57 per barrel.
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Investors continue to assess the actual impact of U.S. actions toward Venezuela on global oil supplies. Despite Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, analysts note that any disruption to its exports is unlikely to materially affect the market, as current Venezuelan production accounts for less than 1% of global supply.
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This is largely due to years of underinvestment, which have led to a sharp decline in Venezuelan output, significantly reducing its role in the global supply–demand balance.

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Oil prices, however, continue to face downside pressure from several factors, including:

Abundant global supply conditions

Weak demand, particularly in Asia

Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut its official selling prices to Asia for the third consecutive month
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In addition, OPEC+ reaffirmed on Sunday its commitment to maintain current production levels through the first quarter, a move that has contributed to stabilizing price movements.

Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin continued its positive trajectory, trading above $92,000, supported by bullish technical signals indicating improved short-term momentum.
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However, the cryptocurrency faces a significant resistance zone near $95,000, where selling pressure could emerge if momentum weakens or risk appetite declines.
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The short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive, but it is contingent on the price’s ability to:

Sustain trading above current support levels

Successfully and decisively break through key resistance levels