Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

• The U.S. Dollar Index rises to 99.5, supported by higher oil prices and inflation concerns.
• Oil prices resume their upward trend despite the largest strategic petroleum reserve release in history.
• Markets scale back expectations for U.S. interest-rate cuts to just one rate cut this year.
• Gold declines under pressure from a stronger dollar and rising bond yields.
• The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasing risks to global supply.
• Bitcoin attempts to stabilize following a recovery rally above $68,500.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 5,151
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 5,182
Targets: 5,207 then 5,238
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 5,139
Targets: 5,114 then 5,087
Note: Gold is currently trading within a consolidation range following a strong rally. Holding above 5,139 supports the continuation of bullish momentum.

CRUDE OIL

Trend: Corrective bullish trend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 94.69
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 96.59
Targets: 99.64 then 102.15
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 91.89
Targets: 88.28 then 84.87
Note: Oil is showing a clear recovery following a strong rebound from demand zones, and a break above 96.59 could trigger a new upward move.

EURUSD

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.1536
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1560
Targets: 1.1586 then 1.1608
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1526
Targets: 1.1500 then 1.1475
Note: The pair remains in a downtrend, continuing to form lower highs and lower lows. Holding below 1.1560 keeps selling pressure dominant.

GBPUSD

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.3369
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3398
Targets: 1.3421 then 1.3449
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3361
Targets: 1.3330 then 1.3304
Note: The pair is moving with clear bearish momentum after breaking key support zones, and any current upward move may be a corrective rally before the downtrend resumes.

NAS100

Trend: Corrective bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 24,730
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 24,877
Targets: 25,063 then 25,204
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 24,687
Targets: 24,526 then 24,405
Note:The index is trading within a bearish correction after losing upward momentum. A break below 24,687 could push prices lower, while a breakout above 24,877 may reignite buying momentum.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims — 15:30
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet — 23:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index rose to around 99.5 on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of gains, supported by higher global oil prices, which have revived concerns about a return of inflationary pressures. This has led markets to scale back expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• Oil prices resumed their advance for a second straight day, as fears of a prolonged conflict with Iran outweighed the impact of major economies announcing the release of strategic petroleum reserves in an effort to calm markets.
• The International Energy Agency has approved the largest coordinated release of oil reserves in history, totaling about 400 million barrels. The plan includes the release of 172 million barrels from the United States and around 80 million barrels from Japan, in addition to contributions from other countries.

• However, markets view this measure as potentially insufficient to offset the supply shortfall, particularly as shipping disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transit corridors.
• In addition, Iraq has suspended operations at several oil facilities after two tankers were targeted in Iraqi waters, highlighting escalating security risks in the region and their direct impact on global energy supplies.
• On the economic data front, figures released on Wednesday showed that U.S. core inflation came in line with expectations, pointing to relative stability at the start of the year. However, markets believe the full economic impact of rising energy prices linked to the war has not yet been fully reflected in the data.
• As a result, investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, while pricing in only one 25-basis-point rate cut later this year, potentially in September.

• Gold:

• Gold fell below $5,150 per ounce on Thursday, marking its second consecutive session of declines.
• The pullback was driven by several factors:

Strength in the U.S. Dollar Index.

Rising yields on U.S. Treasury securities.

Increasing inflation concerns.

• Higher inflation reduces the likelihood that central banks will ease monetary policy in the near term.

• Oil:

• Crude oil prices rose again amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East, with:

Brent crude trading near $100 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate trading close to $95 per barrel.

• The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with attacks targeting commercial vessels off the coast of Iran, has tightened global supply, pushing prices higher despite the announcement of strategic petroleum reserve releases.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin has begun a new recovery wave above the $68,500 level after a period of decline over the past few days.
• The price is currently moving within a consolidation phase, with the potential for continued bullish momentum if it manages to break above the $70,500 resistance level, which could open the door for further gains in the cryptocurrency market.