Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar has surpassed the 99.5 level, supported by heightened safe-haven demand.
Ongoing escalation in the Middle East is reinforcing dollar strength while exerting downward pressure
on gold.
Gold continues its sharp decline amid a strong wave of selling.
Oil remains elevated near the $100 level, driven by supply risk concerns.
Markets are beginning to price in the likelihood of interest rate hikes rather than cuts.
Significant liquidations in the crypto market are weighing on

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $4,367
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $4,407
Targets: $4,438, then $4,474
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below $4,345
Targets: $4,311, then $4,278
Note: Gold is under strong selling pressure, and any current uptick should be considered a corrective move unless the $4,407 level is decisively broken.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Corrective bullish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: $98.85
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $99.90
Targets: $101.62, then $103.52
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below $96.56
Targets: $94.71, then $92.94
Note: Oil is in an upward corrective rebound, and holding above $96.56 supports the continuation of the rally toward higher levels.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.1543
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1575
Targets: 1.1607, then 1.1642
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1526
Targets: 1.1492, then 1.1459
Note: The pair is trading within a short-term bearish structure, and any break below 1.1526 would reinforce the continuation of the downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.3316
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3348
Targets: 1.3381, then 1.3417
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3298
Targets: 1.3262, then 1.3228
Note: The pair has lost upward momentum and has entered a downward wave. Remaining below 1.3348 supports the continuation of the bearish trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 23,787
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 23,865
Targets: 23,945, then 24,033
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 23,743
Targets: 23,657, then 23,575
Note: The index is in a clear downward wave, and any current upward move should be viewed as a corrective rally unless the 23,865 level is decisively broken.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index moved above the 99.5 level on Monday, maintaining its upward momentum from the previous session, as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
• This advance comes amid the continuation of the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran into its fourth week, with no signs of de-escalation, further heightening uncertainty across global markets.
• Donald Trump has intensified his rhetoric, threatening direct strikes on Iranian energy facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. In response, Tehran has issued counter-threats targeting critical infrastructure in the region, including energy and telecommunications assets.
• On the monetary policy front, markets have begun to significantly reprice expectations. The narrative has shifted away from rate cuts, with some traders now anticipating the likelihoodof interest rate hikes by year-end. This shift is driven by:

Continued rise in oil prices

Escalating inflationary pressures

Persistent geopolitical risks

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, with Jerome Powell noting that it is still too early to fully assess the economic impact of the conflict.
• Meanwhile, major central banks—including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan—also held rates steady, while signaling readiness to tighten monetary policy should inflationary pressures persist.

• Gold:

• Gold prices fell below $4,400 per ounce, extending losses for a fourth consecutive week.
• The metal declined by more than 10% over the past week, pressured by several factors:

Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures

Diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts

A shift in investor preference toward the U.S. dollar

Margin-driven liquidation flows

• Although gold is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, the current environment of elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy has weighed significantly on its performance.

• Oil:

• Oil prices extended their gains at the start of the week, with:

Brent crude trading near $112 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $98 per barrel

• This upward momentum is driven by escalating reciprocal threats between the United States and Iran, alongside continued disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil closed last week at its highest levels in nearly four years, underscoring the severity of the current energy market crisis.

Bitcoin:

• The cryptocurrency market saw an intense wave of liquidations, with BTCUSD liquidations jumping 86% over the past 24 hours—over 90% of which were long positions.
• This indicates:

A substantial drain of liquidity from the market

Forced unwinding of highly leveraged positions

A growing correlation between crypto assets and equity markets

• Consequently, Bitcoin has come under clear downward pressure, entering a phase of short-term weakness following its recent rally.