Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar continues to weaken, hovering near the 99.1 level, amid growing optimism over potential de-escalation in the Middle East.
• Reports of a U.S. proposal to resolve the conflict are boosting risk appetite.
• Gold is posting a modest rebound following a previous sharp decline.
• Oil prices are falling significantly as diplomatic hopes increase.
• Persistent inflationary pressures are keeping monetary policy in a hawkish stance.
• Markets remain volatile, caught between political optimism and ongoing geopolitical risks.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,587
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,623
• Targets: 4,655, then 4,690
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,557
• Targets: 4,522, then 4,490
• Note: Gold remains in a strong upward trend, with sustained price action above 4,557 supporting further bullish momentum.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 87.79
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 89.30
• Targets: 91.02, then 92.92
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 85.97
• Targets: 84.12, then 82.35
• Note: Oil remains under clear selling pressure, and any current upside is likely corrective in nature rather than a trend reversal.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1606
• Primary Scenario :Buy on a breakout above 1.1635
• Targets: 1.1674, then 1.1702
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1586
• Targets: 1.1552, then 1.1519
• Note: The pair maintains bullish momentum, but a sustained move above 1.1635 is needed to confirm continuation of the uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3406
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3419
• Targets: 1.3474, then 1.3511
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3391
• Targets: 1.3356, then 1.3322
• Note: The pair is trading within a downward-tilted range, and a break below 1.3391 would suggest a continuation of the bearish trend.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 24,156
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 24,230
• Targets: 24,310, then 24,398
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 24,108
• Targets: 24,022, then 23,940
• Note: The trend remains bearish, and the current upward move appears to be a corrective rally within a weak structure.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
Crude Oil Inventories – 17:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index maintained its downward trajectory near the 99.1 level on Wednesday, pressured by rising optimism over the possibility of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, which has dampened demand for the currency as a safe-haven asset.
• The decline followed media reports indicating that Donald Trump is seeking a one-month ceasefire to pave the way for negotiations, alongside a 15-point U.S. proposal presented to Iran aimed at ending the conflict.
• Trump also stated that Iran had shown a “gesture of goodwill” regarding energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, further supporting market optimism.
• Despite these positive signals, uncertainty persists. Tehran has officially denied engaging in any negotiations, while some Gulf countries have signaled a willingness to escalate and become involved in the conflict, keeping markets in a cautious stance.

• On the monetary policy front, Michael Barr, a Federal Reserve official, stated that the central bank may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously anticipated, amid ongoing inflationary pressures driven by higher energy prices.
• This reinforces the case for a prolonged hawkish monetary policy stance, even in the event of geopolitical de-escalation.

• Gold:

• Gold prices rose above $4,500 per ounce on Wednesday, marking a second consecutive session of gains following a sharp prior sell-off.
• The rebound was supported by:

Improved market sentiment

A weaker U.S. dollar

Hopes for a political resolution.

• However, gold remains approximately 25% below its March peak, reflecting the magnitude of the recent pressure driven by inflationary forces and tight monetary policy.

• Oil:

•

Oil prices declined notably amid rising diplomatic optimism, with:

Brent crude trading near $94 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $88 per barrel
• Crude has fallen by approximately 12% since the start of the week, driven by expectations of de-escalation in the conflict and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Nevertheless, markets remain cautious due to:

Ongoing mutual threats.

Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of negotiations.

Persistent risks to global supply chains.

Bitcoin:

• Outlooks suggest that a continued decline in oil prices toward the $80–$85 range could act as a supportive factor for the upside in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
• However, the market still requires:

Macroeconomic stability.

Lower inflation.

Improved liquidity conditions.

before it can enter a sustained bullish cycle.