Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar stabilizes above the 100 level, supported by safe-haven demand.
• The conflict in the Middle East entering its fifth week is increasing pressure on global markets.
• The involvement of the Houthis in the conflict is heightening geopolitical risks.
• Gold continues to decline amid rising expectations of further monetary tightening.
• Oil prices surge significantly as supply disruptions persist.
• Bitcoin faces downward pressure and stabilizes below the $68,000 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,536
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,564
• Targets: 4,596, followed by 4,631
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,498
• Targets: 4,464, followed by 4,431
• Note: Gold remains within a well-defined upward wave. Sustained price action above the 4,498–4,489 support zone reinforces the continuation of the bullish trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 101.41
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 103.06
• Targets: 104.78, followed by 106.68
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 99.73
• Targets: 97.88, followed by 96.11
• Note: The prevailing trend is strongly bullish, and any near-term pullbacks may be viewed as potential re-entry opportunities within the broader uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1510
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1534
• Targets: 1.1566, followed by 1.1601
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1485
• Targets: 1.1451, followed by 1.1418
• Note: The price is under clear downside pressure, with sellers currently in control.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3264
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3293
• Targets: 1.3326, followed by 1.3363
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3243
• Targets: 1.3208, followed by 1.3174
• Note: The broader trend remains bearish, and any upward move is currently viewed as a corrective retracement.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Corrective Uptrend
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 23,201
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 23,257
• Targets: 23,337, followed by 23,425
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 23,135
• Targets: 23,049, followed by 22,967
• Note: The market is experiencing a strong rebound following a prior decline; however, it remains within a corrective phase. A sustained break above 23,257 is required to confirm continuation of bullish momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States
Fed Chair Powell Speaks – 17:30

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index held steady above the 100 level on Monday, extending its gains for a fourth consecutive session, supported by continued safe-haven inflows as the Middle East conflict entered its fifth week with no clear signs of de-escalation.
• Geopolitical tensions intensified after Donald Trump threatened to exert control over Iranian oil exports and target key energy infrastructure, signaling a potential broadening of military engagement.
• Meanwhile, reports suggest that the United States is preparing for extended ground operations in Iran, following the deployment of additional military assets to the region.
• In a further escalation, the Iran-backed Houthis have entered the conflict, launching attacks against Israel and demonstrating the capability to target:

• Maritime traffic in the Red Sea

• Energy facilities in Saudi Arabia

• Critical infrastructure across the region.

On the monetary policy front, rising oil prices and the ongoing conflict have reinforced hawkish expectations toward the Federal Reserve, with markets increasingly pricing in:

A delay in interest rate cuts

The possibility of additional rate hikes later this year
Investors are also closely monitoring key U.S. labor market data releases this week, including:

• The JOLTS report
• ADP employment data
• The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday

• Gold:

• Gold prices declined to around $4,450 per ounce on Monday, extending their downward trend.
• The metal remains more than 15% below its March peak, driven by a combination of factors:

• Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures
• Diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts
• Strength in the U.S. dollar
• A reversal in central bank purchasing activity.

• Additionally, liquidity injections by several economies to mitigate the economic impact of the conflict have contributed to increased selling pressure on gold.

• Oil:

• Oil prices opened the week with strong gains, with:

• Brent crude trading near $108 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $100 per barrel.

• Prices have risen by more than 3% at the start of the week, driven by:

• The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• The entry of additional parties into the conflict
• Production cuts across the Middle East
• Escalating supply risks

• These levels mark some of the highest prices recorded since the 2022 energy crisis.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin failed to sustain its position above the $68,800 level, retreating to stabilize below $68,000.
• This price action reflects:

• Weakening bullish momentum
• Persistent selling pressure
• Sensitivity to reduced liquidity and elevated risk conditions

• Further downside remains likely if geopolitical and macroeconomic instability persists.