Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

Top headlines:

• The dollar has surpassed 100 and is on track to post strong monthly gains.
• Escalating conflict in the Middle East is heightening fears of stagflation.
• Gold is heading toward its worst monthly performance in years.
• Oil has recorded a sharp rally, supported by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Tensions have spread to the Red Sea, increasing disruptions in energy markets.
• Bitcoin is attempting to recover, but momentum remains weak.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

• Trend: Corrective bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,573
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,609
• Targets: 4,641, then 4,676
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,543
• Targets: 4,509, then 4,476
• Note: Gold is attempting to recover following the recent decline, but a confirmed breakout above 4,609 is required to validate further upside momentum.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 102.54
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 104.21
• Targets: 105.93, then 107.83
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 100.87
• Targets: 99.02, then 97.25
• Note: West Texas Intermediate has experienced a sharp decline from its recent peak, with the market currently undergoing a corrective phase within a broader downtrend.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1462
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1497
• Targets: 1.1529, then 1.1564
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1448
• Targets: 1.1414, then 1.1381
• Note: The pair is maintaining a bearish structure. Sustained trading below 1.1497 reinforces the likelihood of continued downside momentum.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3201
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3227
• Targets: 1.3260, then 1.3297
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3177
• Targets: 1.3141, then 1.3108
• Note: The pair remains under clear selling pressure, and any upward movement is currently viewed as a corrective move within the prevailing downtrend.

NAS100

• Trend: Range-bound with a bearish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 23,130
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 23,178
• Targets: 23,258, then 23,346
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 23,056
• Targets: 22,970, then 22,888
• Note: Bitcoin is currently consolidating after a strong decline. The bearish scenario remains more dominant as long as prices stay below 23,178, with the market exhibiting sideways volatility within a corrective phase.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

Eurozone
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (March) – 12:00
United States
CB Consumer Confidence Index (March) – 17:00
JOLTS Job Openings (February) – 17:00

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index held steady above the 100 level on Tuesday, remaining on track to post monthly gains of approximately 3%, supported by increased safe-haven demand amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices.
• This strong performance comes against a backdrop of mounting stagflation concerns, as higher oil prices are fueling inflation while economic growth continues to slow.
• The regional conflict has now entered its fifth week with no signs of de-escalation. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, alongside threats to extend disruptions to the Red Sea, placing two of the world’s most critical energy transit routes under significant pressure.
• On the political front, Donald Trump has escalated threats to launch strikes on Iranian energy facilities should the strait remain closed, despite mixed signals regarding the potential cessation of military operations.

• Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly targeted a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai, while the Houthis—backed by Iran—have expanded their involvement by launching attacks on Israel, pointing to a widening regional conflict.
• On the monetary policy side, Jerome Powell emphasized that long-term inflation expectations in the United States remain well anchored, despite elevated uncertainty.
• He added that the Federal Reserve has adequate flexibility to evaluate the economic impact of the conflict before taking further action, underscoring a measured and cautious policy approach.
• Market participants are now looking ahead to upcoming consumer confidence figures and the JOLTS Job Openings report for additional insight into the resilience of the U.S. economy.

• Gold:

• Gold prices stabilized near $4,500 per ounce on Tuesday, but remain on track to post an approximate 15% monthly decline.
• This marks one of the sharpest drops since October 2008 financial crisis, as gold has come under significant pressure due to:

• Rising oil prices
• Intensifying inflation concerns
• Diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts
• Continued strength in the U.S. dollar

• Oil:

• Oil prices have eased slightly following a strong rally, with:

• Brent Crude trading near $106 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate hovering around $102 per barrel

• Despite this modest pullback, oil remains on track to post a record monthly surge exceeding 50%, supported by:

• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• Attacks on energy infrastructure
• The expansion of the conflict into the Red Sea
• Regional production cuts

• Any further disruption to these critical transit routes could trigger another sharp upswing in prices.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin has begun attempting a recovery above the $67,000 level, but continues to struggle to break through the $68,500 resistance zone.
• This price action reflects:

• Weak bullish momentum
• Ongoing pressure from global markets
• Liquidity constraints amid broader economic conditions

• As a result, the current move appears more like a corrective rebound within an unclear or range-bound trend rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.