Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized near 99.8 following strong gains in March.
• Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have dampened safe-haven demand momentum.
• Gold is rebounding, but remains under pressure from the prevailing bearish trend.
• Oil prices are holding at elevated levels amid anticipation of statements from Donald Trump.
• Markets are closely monitoring key U.S. economic data to determine the trajectory of interest rates.
• Bitcoin is attempting to recover but continues to face strong resistance.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,697
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,721
• Targets: 4,753, then 4,788
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,655
• Targets: 4,620, then 4,588
• Note: Gold remains within a clear upward wave, with pullbacks viewed as buying opportunities as long as price holds above 4,655.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 100.47
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 102.89
• Targets: 104.60, then 106.51
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 99.55
• Targets: 97.70, then 95.93
• Note: Oil is currently under downside pressure following a strong breakdown. Any upward movement is considered corrective unless the price decisively breaks above 102.89

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1566
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1588
• Targets: 1.1620, then 1.1655
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1539
• Targets: 1.1505, then 1.1472
• Note: EUR/USD is maintaining a clear uptrend, although price is currently consolidating within a range ahead of a potential breakout.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3264
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3281
• Targets: 1.3314, then 1.3350
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3231
• Targets: 1.3195, then 1.3161
• Note: The pair appears to be in the early stages of an upward move, with any pullback toward 1.3231 potentially acting as a continuation opportunity for the prevailing trend.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 23,914
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 23,960
• Targets: 24,040, then 24,128
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 23,793
• Targets: 23,708, then 23,625
• Note: the index has recently shown signs of strengthening after breaking the previous bearish structure. Holding above 23,793 continues to support the bullish outlook and the potential for further upside momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United States

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (March) – 15:15
• Retail Sales MoM (February) – 15:30
• Core Retail Sales MoM (February) – 15:30
• Manufacturing PMI (March) – 16:45
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) – 17:00
• Crude Oil Inventories – 17:30

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated around the 99.8 level in the opening sessions of April, following strong gains of approximately 2.3% in March. These gains were supported by safe-haven inflows amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• This stability reflects a balance between two key factors:

• Persistent geopolitical risks
• Early signals of potential de-escalation

• Donald Trump indicated the possibility of ending the conflict within two to three weeks, even if partial disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz continue. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Iranian president may be open to resolving the conflict under specific conditions.
• On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a cautious stance. Elevated oil prices have sustained inflationary concerns, thereby reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts within the current year.

• In this context, Jerome Powell sought to reassure markets, noting that long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored despite current pressures.
• Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming U.S. economic data releases, which are expected to play a decisive role in shaping the future path of monetary policy.

• Gold:

• Gold prices rose by more than 4% to approximately $4,690 per ounce on Wednesday, supported by a relative easing in geopolitical tensions.
• However, gains remain constrained due to:

• Strength in the U.S. dollar
• Elevated bond yields
• Weaker safe-haven demand

• Gold recorded a decline of over 13% in March, marking its steepest monthly drop since 2008, and it remains approximately 19%below its all-time high.

• Oil:

• Oil prices moved higher again, with:

• Brent Crude trading near $103 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate hovering around $101 per barrel

• This increase came despite signs of de-escalation, as markets remain cautious due to:

• The continued partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz
• The deployment of additional forces to the region
• The absence of confirmed formal negotiations

• Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a build in inventories of 10.263 million barrels. This added some downward pressure on prices, but did not alter the broader upward trend.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin is attempting to recover following the recent downturn, currently trading:

• Above the $67,500 level
• Below the $68,800 resistance threshold

• The market is struggling to regain bullish momentum amid:

• Weak liquidity conditions
• Elevated volatility
• Strong correlation with the broader macroeconomic environment

• This suggests a continued likelihood of sideways movement or further short-term correction.