Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar has risen back above the 100 level amid escalating tensions ahead of Trump’s deadline to Iran.
• Threats targeting Iranian infrastructure have heightened market anxiety.
• Gold has stabilized following a series of losses, though it remains under pressure.
• Oil is holding at elevated levels near $115, driven by supply risk concerns.
• Markets are abandoning expectations of interest rate cuts this year.
• Bitcoin is consolidating above $68,000, with weakening bullish momentum.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Sideways with a bearish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,644
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,677
• Targets: 4,709, then 4,744
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,611
• Targets: 4,577, then 4,544
• Note: Gold is consolidating following a decline, with no clear directional bias unless either boundary is decisively breached.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 115.39
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 116.88
• Targets: 118.60, then 120.50
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 113.55
• Targets: 111.70, then 109.93
• Note: Oil is currently in a strong upward phase, and holding above 113.55 supports the continuation of the prevailing uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Sideways with a bearish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1532
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1550
• Targets: 1.1582, then 1.1617
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1513
• Targets: 1.1479, then 1.1446
• Note: The pair is currently trading within a range, with selling pressure remaining stronger as long as price stays below 1.1550.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3228
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3252
• Targets: 1.3285, then 1.3322
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3202
• Targets: 1.3166, then 1.3133
• Note: The pair is currently in a consolidation phase within a broader downtrend. A break below 1.3202 would signal stronger bearish continuation.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 24,047
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 24,145
• Targets: 24,225, then 24,313
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 23,979
• Targets: 23,893, then 23,811
• Note: The index remains under clear downward pressure, and any upward movement without a breakout above 24,145 is considered a corrective move rather than a trend reversal.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United States

• No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index climbed back above the 100 mark on Tuesday, rebounding from the prior session’s losses, as safe-haven demand strengthened ahead of the deadline set by Donald Trump for Iran.
• Trump warned of potential direct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and bridges if his conditions—most notably the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—are not met before the deadline.
• Despite the escalating rhetoric, the outlook remains uncertain. Reports pointto ongoing indirect talks between the United States and Iran via regional intermediaries, leaving markets in a state of cautious watchfulness.
• On the monetary policy front, markets have undergone a clear shift in expectations, now pricing in the following scenario:

• Interest rates remaining on hold throughout 2026
• A full repricing out of rate cut expectations
• Increased probability of further tightening should inflation persist

• This shift comes amid continued elevation in energy prices, which is intensifying inflationary pressures and compelling the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious policy stance.

• Gold:

• Gold prices have steadied near $4,650 per ounce after a pronounced selloff.
• Despite the recent consolidation, the metal remains down approximately 12% since the conflict began, pressured by several key factors:

• Elevated oil prices
• Intensifying inflationary pressures
• Fading expectations for monetary easing
• Continued strength in the U.S. dollar

• Overall, this dynamic underscores comparatively softer demand for gold versus the dollar in the current risk-off environment.

• Oil:

• Oil prices have remained exceptionally elevated, with:

• Brent crude trading near $111 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $115 per barrel

• This sustained strength is driven by several factors:

• Ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
• Escalating mutual threats targeting energy infrastructure
• Iran’s refusal to accept a temporary ceasefire without comprehensive conditions

• Additionally, Tehran has warned that any U.S. strikes would be met with an escalation in attacks on energy assets in the Gulf, further heightening the risk of global supply shortages.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin has posted a notable move above the $68,800 level, though bullish momentum is beginning to fade.
• The price is currently trading within a key range:

• Support: $67,500
• Resistance: $70,000

• Market conditions may turn increasingly volatile in the near term, as Bitcoin remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions and shifts in global liquidity.