Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The US dollar declined to a four-week low following the announcement of a ceasefire.
• A temporary de-escalation in the Middle East reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
• Gold rebounded upward after a sharp sell-off.
• Oil prices dropped significantly after the de-escalation was announced.
• Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data to determine the next directional move.
• Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, trading above $70,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,833
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,849
• Targets: 4,880, then 4,915
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 4,782
• Targets: 4,748, then 4,715
• Note: Gold has regained strong bullish momentum, and the current market structure supports further upside continuation.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 94.58
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 97.32
• Targets: 99.04, then 100.94
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 93.99
• Targets: 92.14, then 90.36
• Note: Oil has experienced a sharp bearish move (a strong downside candle), and current price action suggests a continuation of the downward trend.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1695
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1709
• Targets: 1.1737, then 1.1773
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.1668
• Targets: 1.1634, then 1.1601
• Note: The pair continues to exhibit strong bullish momentum, and any current pullback is considered corrective in nature.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3433
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3456
• Targets: 1.3489, then 1.3525
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.3406
• Targets: 1.3370, then 1.3336
• Note: The overall trend remains clearly bullish, and current pullbacks are considered buying opportunities as long as price holds above 1.3406.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 24,997
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,060
• Targets: 25,140, then 25,228
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 24,894
• Targets: 24,808, then 24,726
• Note: The index is showing strong bullish momentum, and only a break below 24,894 would invalidate the current bullish bias and shift the outlook.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United States

• U.S. Crude Oil Inventories – 17:30
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes – 21:00

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index declined by 0.5% to approximately 99 on Wednesday, marking its lowest level in four weeks, following Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week delay in planned military strikes on Iranian infrastructure as part of what he described as a “dual ceasefire.”
• The decision came just hours before the expiration of the deadline he had set for Iran, noting the existence of a 10-point proposal from the Iranian side that could serve as a foundation for a potential agreement.
• This development helped to temporarily stabilize markets, particularly amid discussions about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although Tehran has not officially confirmed these developments.

• On the monetary policy front, investors are awaiting fresh signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly as inflationary pressures persist amid the ongoing energy crisis.
• Upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping market direction, especially following the recent rise in inflation expectations among U.S. consumers.
• Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes due later today may provide greater clarity regarding:

• The trajectory of monetary policy
• The assessment of the war’s impact on inflation
• The timing of any potential changes to interest rates

• Gold:

• Gold prices rose by more than 2% to exceed $4,800 per ounce on Wednesday, extending their recovery following a sharp sell-off.
• This increase was supported by:

• A weaker U.S. dollar
• Temporary easing of geopolitical tensions

• Renewed demand for hedging

• Despite this rebound, gold remains approximately 25% below its recent peak, reflecting subdued overall momentum due to previously tight monetary policy.

• Oil:

• Oil prices fell sharply following the ceasefire announcement, with:

• Brent crude trading near $92 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near $94 per barrel

• Crude declined by more than 15% duringthe session, driven by:

• Reduced geopolitical risk
• Expectations of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
• The potential return of supply to global markets

• Despite the sharp decline, markets remain cautious due to the lack of official confirmation from Iran regarding the full resumption of maritime traffic.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin continued its strong rally above the $70,000 level, with clear stability in bullish momentum.
• The current performance indicates:

• A return of liquidity to the market
• Improved risk appetite
• Partial decoupling from geopolitical developments

• If prices hold above $71,500, we could see a continuation of the upward trend in the short term.