Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar is trading in a sideways range near the 98.5 level, as investors await key U.S. economic data that could prompt a reassessment of interest rate expectations.

Gold has paused its recent upward momentum as market attention shifts toward upcoming macroeconomic releases.

Oil prices are retreating amid concerns over a potential increase in global supply, following signals of a resumption in Venezuelan crude exports.

Bitcoin continues to trade above the $92,000 level, entering a short-term corrective phase.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Corrective uptrend within an ascending channel
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: $4,447.37
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $4,469.49
Targets: $4,475.15, then $4,490.26
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below $4,436.82
Targets: $4,422.43, then $4,405.84
Note: Gold is undergoing a corrective phase within the ascending channel. Holding above $4,436 maintains the overall bullish bias.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: $56.090
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above $56.441
Targets: $56.800, then $57.148
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below $55.942
Targets: $55.582, then $55.152
Note: Oil remains under strong selling pressure after breaking previous support levels. Any rebound is likely to remain weak unless prices move above $56.44.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Bearish with limited corrective moves
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 1.16964
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.17121
Targets: 1.17339, then 1.17546
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.16808
Targets: 1.16633, then 1.16431
Note: Price remains below key moving averages, and any upward movement is considered corrective unless it breaks above 1.17121.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Corrective uptrend
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 1.35131
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.35255
Targets: 1.35431, then 1.35630
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34964
Targets: 1.34765, then 1.34575
Note: The pair is consolidating after a strong upward move. A break above 1.35255 would restore bullish momentum.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Corrective uptrend within a broader downtrend
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 25,768.75
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,860.00
Targets: 25,979.25, then 26,087.00
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,703.00
Targets: 25,598.25, then 25,490.25
Note: The recent rally lost momentum near 25,860, and the price remains below key highs. Sustaining above 25,860 is necessary for the corrective move to continue.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls – December | 16:15
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – December | 18:00
Job Openings – JOLTS, November | 18:00
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories | 18:30

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy

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The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around the 98.5 level on Wednesday, holding on to modest gains from the previous session, as investors brace for a busy slate of U.S. economic data that could play a pivotal role in reshaping expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
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Market attention is focused today on services-sector activity and job openings data, before shifting to weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday, and culminating with the December employment report (NFP) on Friday, which is widely regarded as the most significant release of the week.
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Earlier, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that U.S. manufacturing activity recorded its sharpest contraction since 2024, reinforcing concerns over a broader economic slowdown.

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Market participants also weighed recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials, as Governor Stephen Miran indicated that the central bank may need to pursue more forceful interest-rate reductions later this year to preserve economic momentum, particularly given emerging risks in the labor market.
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Despite this dovish rhetoric, financial markets continue to assign a probability of over 80% that the Federal Reserve will maintain its policy rate at the forthcoming meeting, as investors await more definitive economic data.
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From a global perspective, the U.S. dollar drew additional support from broad-based weakness in the euro, after data revealed easing inflationary pressures in both Germany and France, thereby widening relative growth and policy differentials among major currencies.

Gold & Silver

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Gold prices retreated to around $4,480 per ounce on Wednesday, snapping a two-day winning streak, as investors temporarily shifted their focus away from geopolitical risks toward upcoming U.S. economic data.
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Despite the pullback, the underlying fundamental drivers supporting gold remain intact, notably:

Persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy

Ongoing geopolitical tensions

Sustained structural demand from central banks
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However, at this stage, markets have opted to scale back positions ahead of key data releases that could help define the next directional move for the precious metal.

Oil

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Oil prices moved lower, with:

Brent crude trading near $59 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovering around $56 per barrel
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Downward pressure on prices followed remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who indicated that Venezuela could deliver between 30 and 50 million barrels of crude oil to the United States.
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While this volume remains relatively modest in the context of global supply, markets are increasingly concerned that a sustained flow of Venezuelan crude into the U.S. could exacerbate oversupply conditions in a market already grappling with a structural supply surplus.

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At the same time, traders remain focused on evaluating:

Prospective negotiations between international energy producers and U.S. authorities concerning the potential resumption of Venezuelan crude imports

Developments toward a possible U.S.–Ukraine security agreement, which could eventually facilitate a relaxation of constraints on Russian oil exports
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From a data perspective, figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a drawdown of 2.8 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week, defying market expectations of a 1.2 million-barrel build. This unexpected decline helped cushion prices and temper downside risks.

Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin continues to trade above the $92,500 level following a strong rally, though it has entered a healthy corrective phase aimed at easing overextended momentum.
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Current price action suggests a potential retest of the support zone near $90,500 before any renewed attempt to resume the broader uptrend.
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The overall outlook remains constructive as long as prices hold above key support levels, with market participants monitoring potential catalysts from traditional financial markets or shifts in liquidity conditions in the period ahead.