Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar recoups gains amid stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations.
• Gold declines as inflation concerns intensify and geopolitical tensions persist.
• Oil prices rise again following Trump’s rejection of the Iranian proposal.
• The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to pressure global energy markets.
• Markets scale back interest rate cut expectations after strong U.S. employment data.
• Bitcoin maintains positive momentum above the $81,000 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 4,669
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,684
• Targets: 4,716 followed by 4,751
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,643
• Targets: 4,609 followed by 4,576
• Note: Gold remains under short-term selling pressure, although price action is still trading within potential rebound zones.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 99.45
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 101.07
• Targets: 102.79 followed by 104.69
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 97.74
• Targets: 95.89 followed by 94.12
• Note: Oil continues to maintain its bullish recovery following a strong rebound from deep demand zones.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.1760
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1773
• Targets: 1.1801 followed by 1.1836
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1741
• Targets: 1.1707 followed by 1.1674
• Note: The euro remains within a positive market structure, with clear respect for key demand zones.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 1.3590
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3613
• Targets: 1.3646 followed by 1.3682
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3562
• Targets: 1.3527 followed by 1.3493
• Note: The pair is attempting to extend its upward correction as long as it remains trading above the current support level.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 Minutes
• Current Price: 29,205
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 29,303
• Targets: 29,383 followed by 29,471
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 29,137
• Targets: 29,051 followed by 28,969
• Note: The index continues to maintain positive momentum after the recent strong upward impulse, holding above key demand zones.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

• Existing Homes Sales (Apr)– 15:30

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to approximately 98 on Monday, regaining some of the losses recorded last week as ongoing uncertainty over U.S.–Iran negotiations boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar.
• The move higher followed remarks by Donald Trump, who labeled Iran’s response to the U.S. peace initiative as “totally unacceptable,” highlighting persistent disputes surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program.

❖ Geopolitical Developments

• According to reports, Iran offered to relocate part of its highly enriched uranium reserves to a third-party country, while maintaining its refusal to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure — a stance that was firmly rejected by Washington.
• Meanwhile, the region witnessed renewed escalation over the weekend, as:

• Drones targeted a cargo vessel near Qatar
• The UAE and Kuwait intercepted hostile drones
• Security tensions across the Gulf region continued to intensify

• These developments revived concerns over the potential collapse of the fragile ceasefire that has been in place since early April.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, causing significant disruptions to global energy supplies. This has led to:

• Higher oil prices
• Increased inflationary risks
• Growing concerns over a slowdown in the global economy

• The International Energy Agency also described the current situation as “the largest supply shock ever recorded.”

• Monetary Policy and Outlook

• Recent U.S. labor market data further supported the dollar’s strength after the economy added 115,000 jobs in April, significantly exceeding expectations of 62,000.
• The stronger-than-expected figures reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period.
• Investors are also awaiting upcoming U.S. inflation data to assess the extent to which rising energy prices are impacting the American economy.

• Gold:

• Gold fell below $4,700 per ounce, surrendering part of its recent gains.
• The decline was driven by:

• A stronger U.S. dollar
• Escalating inflation concerns
• Rising expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer

• Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, markets are currently placing greater focus on inflation risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy.

• Oil:

• Oil prices surged sharply amid ongoing supply disruptions, with:

• Brent crude trading near $105 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovering around $99 per barrel

• The rally followed the U.S. rejection of the Iranian proposal and the continuation of military tensions across the region.
• The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also continued to reinforce strong upward pressure on global energy markets.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin extended its upward momentum, moving above the $81,500 mark.
• The advance reflects:

• Ongoing investor appetite for risk assets
• Stronger flows into alternative investments
• Relative stability within the crypto market

• Should bullish momentum continue, the price may test higher resistance levels around $82,450.