Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar weakened after the launch of a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chair, fueling concerns over the central bank’s institutional independence.

Gold reached a fresh all-time high, supported by heightened geopolitical risks and persistent dollar softness.

Oil prices posted modest gains amid escalating protests in Iran and growing concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Bitcoin slipped below the $92,000 level and continues to face challenges in regaining upward momentum.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bullish within a channel
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 4,580.51
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,585.93
Targets: 4,597.39, then 4,612.51
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,559.06
Targets: 4,544.68, then 4,528.08
Note: Gold maintains its bullish bias; however, current price action suggests a consolidation phase

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Corrective bullish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 59.047
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 59.308
Targets: 59.667, then 60.015
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 58.809
Targets: 58.449, then 58.019
Note: Oil is currently consolidating after a strong advance, with the next directional move likely to be confirmed by a clear breakout from the current range.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.16687
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.16758
Targets: 1.17020, then 1.17226
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.16503
Targets: 1.16314, then 1.16112
Note: The pair remains under strong selling pressure, only a breakout will signal a broader corrective move.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34347
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.34415
Targets: 1.34591, then 1.34790
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34123
Targets: 1.33925, then 1.33735
Note: The overall trend remains negative, and the current rebound is weak as long as the price stays below the descending moving averages.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Corrective bearish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,691.75
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,796.25
Targets: 25,915.75, then 26,023.25
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,639.25
Targets: 25,534.75, then 25,426.50
Note: The index failed to hold above the moving averages, and any upward move remains corrective unless there is a clear close above 25,796.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:
No significant economic data releases scheduled for today.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

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The U.S. Dollar Index fell to around 98.8 on Monday, snapping a four-day rally, after reports emerged that federal prosecutors had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—raising serious concerns about the independence of the U.S. central bank.
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Powell described the move as a form of political pressure aimed at pushing the Federal Reserve to align its monetary policy with the Trump administration’s agenda, warning that such actions could undermine the Fed’s ability to make independent, data-driven decisions.
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The dollar also came under additional pressure following:

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed weaker-than-expected job growth.

Growing market bets on two additional interest-rate cuts in 2026.
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Investors are now turning their attention this week to U.S. inflation data and earnings reports from major banks as key catalysts for assessing the future trajectory of monetary policy.

• Gold & Silver:

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Gold prices surged more than 1% on Monday, climbing above $4,600 per ounce to set a new all-time high, supported by:

Escalating geopolitical risks, particularly in Iran.

Growing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Continued weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Expectations of further U.S. interest-rate cuts.
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Gold continues to benefit from its role as a safe-haven asset amid an environment characterized by:

Heightened political uncertainty.

Increasing pressure on monetary policy credibility.

Rising geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and Latin America.

• Oil:

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Oil prices posted modest gains as tensions in the Middle East intensified, with Brent crude trading near $63 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering around $59 per barrel.
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Protests in Iran have entered their third week, with reports of hundreds of fatalities and a tightening security crackdown, raising concerns over the stability of supply from Iran, which exports nearly 2 million barrels per day and ranks as the fourth-largest producer within OPEC.
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Additional factors lending support to prices include:

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil exports following tighter U.S. sanctions.

President Trump’s warning to Cuba of potential cuts to oil supplies and financial support in the absence of an agreement with Washington.
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Despite these geopolitical risks, markets remain cautious, closely monitoring the impact of abundant global supply on the medium-term outlook.

• Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin fell below the $92,000 level before attempting a rebound from around $89,220.
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Current price action points to:

Weakening bullish momentum.

Strong technical resistance near the $92,000 threshold.
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Bitcoin appears to be undergoing a technical correction following recent gains, as investors await fresh catalysts that could restore positive momentum—particularly in an environment marked by:

• Elevated volatility.

• Heightened sensitivity to geopolitical and macro-financial developments.