Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar steadies near the 99 level as markets await crucial U.S. inflation data.

Gold retreats from a record high after a strong rally driven by geopolitical risks.

Oil continues to rise, supported by tensions with Iran and threats of supply disruptions.

Bitcoin moves in a sideways range below $92,000 while holding onto a key support level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Bullish within an ascending channel
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 4,581.82
Primary Scenario – Bullish: Buy on a confirmed break above 4,594.01
Targets: 4,605.47, then 4,620.58
Alternative Scenario – Bearish: Sell on a decisive break below 4,568.05
Targets: 4,552.75, then 4,536.16Technical
Note: Gold remains trading within a rising channel, and any downside moves should be viewed as corrective pullbacks as long as price holds above the lower boundary support of the channel.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Bullish
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 59.735
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed break above 59.835
Targets: 60.195, then 60.542
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 59.336
Targets: 58.977, then 58.547
Note: Oil continues to exhibit positive momentum above key moving averages, and the prevailing bullish bias remains intact unless a clear downside break occurs.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Sideways with a bearish bias
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 1.16558
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.16758
Targets: 1.17020, then 1.17226
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 1.16488
Targets: 1.16314, then 1.16112
Note: The price is trading near a key support level, and a break below it could reignite selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Corrective bullish within an overall downtrend
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 1.34682
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed breakout above 1.34821
Targets: 1.34997, then 1.35196
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 1.34530
Targets: 1.34331, then 1.34141
Note: The current rebound is corrective, and the pair remains below key moving averages, indicating that the overall bearish trend is still intact.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Corrective bullish within a sideways range
Timeframe: 30-minute chart
Current Price: 25,916.50
Primary Scenario: Buy on a confirmed break above 25,983.50
Targets: 26,103.00, then 26,210.50
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a decisive break below 25,827.65
Targets: 25,721.75, then 25,613.75
Note: The price is consolidating within a sideways range following a strong rally, and a break above 25,983 is required to sustain the upward momentum.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

Consumer Price Index (MoM) – December | 16:30
Consumer Price Index (YoY) – December | 16:30
Core Consumer Price Index– December | 16:30
New Home Sales – December | 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

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The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near the 99 mark on Tuesday after facing downside pressure in the previous session, as investor attention turned to the release of key U.S. inflation data later today—widely viewed as a critical catalyst for shaping the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy stance.
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The cautious tone in markets reflects:

Expectations of two policy rate cuts in 2026, with the first anticipated in June.

A softer-than-expected December employment report, reinforcing the outlook for a more accommodative policy trajectory.
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However, an upside surprise in inflation could:

Narrow the scope for monetary easing

Trigger a reassessment of interest-rate expectations across financial markets.

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Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s institutional independence continue to weigh on the U.S. dollar, following the launch of a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell related to his testimony before Congress. Powell has characterized the move as political pressure from the administration of President Donald Trump, aimed at steering the central bank toward cutting interest rates.
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Meanwhile, investors are also closely monitoring the U.S. Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the legality of tariff policies, expected on Wednesday. The decision could serve as a near-term catalyst for heightened volatility in the dollar, depending on its implications for trade policy and economic outlook.

• Gold & Silver:

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Gold prices retreated below $4,580 per ounce on Tuesday after reaching a fresh record high in the previous session.
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The pullback reflects:

Routine profit-taking following a strong upward rally

Investor caution ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which is expected to shape the near-term outlook for monetary policy.
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Despite the decline, gold remains underpinned by robust structural support, driven by:

Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran

Eroding confidence in the independence of U.S. monetary policy

Sustained investment and official-sector demand for the metal as a strategic safe-haven asset.

• Oil:

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Oil prices extended their gains, with Brent crude trading near $64 per barrel and WTI hovering around $59 per barrel.
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The primary catalyst for the advance came from recent announcements by President Trump, including:

The imposition of 25% tariffs on countries maintaining trade relations with Iran

Explicit warnings of potential military action against Tehran.
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These developments have heightened concerns over:

Possible disruptions to Iranian crude exports

Rising geopolitical risk across the Middle East, a critical energy-producing region.
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Supply-side risks have been further amplified by declining oil output in Kazakhstan, driven by adverse weather conditions and scheduled maintenance, as well as damage to Russian energy infrastructure following Ukrainian drone attacks.
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Together, these factors have reinforced the bullish tone in crude markets by intensifying fears of near-term supply constraints

Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase below the $92,000 level, while continuing to hold strong technical support near $89,500.
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The current price action suggests:

A period of market indecision and positioning

Traders awaiting fresh catalysts that could trigger a breakout above resistance and initiate a renewed upside move.
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On the downside, a decisive break below the prevailing support zone could:

Intensify selling pressure

Expose the price to a near-term retest of lower support levels.