Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

The U.S. dollar fluctuates near the 99 level amid continued pressure stemming from tensions with Europe.

The escalating dispute over Greenland undermines confidence in U.S. assets.

Gold posts a new record high, supported by safe-haven inflows.

Oil prices remain stable amid oversupply pressures and a decline in short-term Iran-related risks.

Bitcoin continues to retreat, with downside risks persisting below the $91,500 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: Strong bullish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 4,711.98
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,722.96
Targets: 4,734.42 followed by 4,749.53
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,696.09
Targets: 4,681.70 followed by 4,665.11
Note: Bullish momentum remains clearly intact following a strong breakout. Any pullback is considered corrective as long as prices hold above 4,696.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Range-bound with a bearish bias
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 59.386
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 59.534
Targets: 59.893 followed by 60.241
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 59.035
Targets: 58.676 followed by 58.246
Note: Oil prices are moving within a clearly defined range, with a breakout likely to determine the next directional move.

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EURUSD

 

Trend: Corrective bullish
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.16627
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.16782
Targets: 1.17043 followed by 1.17250
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.16512
Targets: 1.16337 followed by 1.16135
Note: Price has broken above short-term moving averages but remains below key resistance levels.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Corrective bullish within a broader downtrend
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 1.34349
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.34561
Targets: 1.34737 followed by 1.34936
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.34269
Targets: 1.34071 followed by 1.33881
Note: The current rebound originated from a clear support level, but the overall trend remains bearish below 1.34561.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Bearish with a corrective rebound
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Current Price: 25,327.75
Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 25,457.88
Targets: 25,569.50 followed by 25,677.25
Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 25,293.25
Targets: 25,188.50 followed by 25,080.50
Note: Price remains below major moving averages, and any upward movement is considered corrective unless it breaks above 25,457.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From the United States:

No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

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The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around the 99 level on Tuesday, following a sharp decline in the previous session, as pressure persisted amid escalating political and trade tensions between the United States and Europe.
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Confidence in U.S. assets weakened after developments related to President Donald Trump’s proposal to acquire Greenland. Reports indicated that Denmark has strengthened its military presence on the island, while Trump declined to rule out the use of force to secure control.
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Over the weekend, Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries starting February 1, rising to 25% in June unless an agreement is reached allowing the United States to acquire Greenland.
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European Union leaders are scheduled to discuss potential countermeasures during an emergency summit on Thursday, as concerns mount over the risk of a broad-based trade conflict.

Analysts warned that Europe holds nearly $10 trillion in U.S. assets, including bonds and equities, which could represent a powerful source of leverage should the dispute escalate.
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Against this backdrop, investors are awaiting the release of U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data later this week, which may provide further signals on the inflation trajectory and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

• Gold & Silver:

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Gold extended its strong performance, surpassing new record highs above $4,720 per ounce, supported by rising safe-haven demand.
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This momentum is underpinned by:

Escalating trade tensions between the United States and Europe

Ongoing geopolitical instability in Iran and Venezuela

Persistent concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence

Expectations of additional U.S. interest rate cuts during 2026
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This advance marks a continuation of the robust gains recorded by gold throughout 2025.

• Oil:

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Oil prices were steady in Tuesday’s trading, with Brent crude hovering near $64 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate trading around $59 per barrel.
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The market remained under pressure from:

Escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, increasing uncertainty over global demand

Persistent concerns about a global supply surplus
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On the other hand, short-term supply risks from Iran eased after President Trump indicated that any military action would be deferred, reducing fears of immediate disruptions to Middle Eastern oil flows.
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Investors’ focus now turns to the International Energy Agency’s monthly report due on Wednesday, seeking clearer signals on the global supply–demand balance.

Bitcoin:

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Bitcoin began a new downward move below the $94,000 level, as the market entered a phase of consolidating losses following the failure of recent rebound attempts.
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Bitcoin remains:

Vulnerable to further selling pressure should the $91,500 support level be breached

Weighed down by subdued risk appetite amid escalating geopolitical and trade tensions
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The short-term technical outlook remains cautious, pending fresh catalysts that could restore positive momentum to the market.