Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

• Key Headlines:
• The dollar rises to near 100.33 and records its highest level in around seven weeks after the Federal Reserve decision.
• The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 3.75%–4.00% and signals the continuation of the monetary tightening cycle.
• Markets are pricing a probability of around 52.8% for a further rate hike at the October meeting.
• Gold rebounds to near $4,310 after the strong decline that followed the Federal Reserve decision.
• Brent crude is trading near $104.6 and West Texas near $101.3 with supplies improving.
• Bitcoin is trading near $76,300–76,600 amid the strength of the dollar and continued outflows from the funds.

Fundamental Analysis

• The Dollar and Monetary Policy
  • The dollar index rose to near 100.33 on Thursday, recording its highest level in around seven weeks, after the Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates by 25 basis points from the 3.50%–3.75% range to 3.75%–4.00%.
  • The largest support for the dollar came from the Federal Reserve’s new projections, as the median interest rate projection for the end of 2026 rose to 4.1%, coinciding with an upward revision to the inflation projections, which indicates that the bank still sees the possibility of a need for further tightening.
  • Markets are currently pricing a probability of around 52.8% for a further rate hike to 4.00%–4.25% at the 28 October meeting, against 47.2% for the probability of keeping it unchanged, which reflects a clear division regarding the timing of the next step.
  • Attention turns today to the US labour market and housing data, where strong figures could support the dollar and the expectations of a further rate hike, while weak data could ease tightening expectations and support gold and high-risk assets.

• Gold:
  • Gold rose by more than 1% to trade near $4,310 per ounce after falling to around $4,240 following the Federal Reserve decision, before buying appeared during the Asian session.
  • Despite the recovery, the short-term environment remains difficult with the dollar reaching its highest level in seven weeks and yields continuing to rise, while the retreat in oil prices and the geopolitical risks provide some support for the metal.

• Oil:
  • Brent crude retreated to near $104.59 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell to around $101.29, with concerns easing over a shortage in supplies after Saudi Arabia provided additional shipments to the Asian refineries through transfer operations off the Sultanate of Oman.
  • The continued passage of some shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the expectation of a gradual restoration of the Saudi East-West pipeline also contributed to reducing the risk premium, despite the market remaining sensitive to any new escalation in the region.

• Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin traded near $76,300–76,600 after falling to around $75,351, with the continuation of the pressure resulting from the rate hike, the strength of the dollar and the rise in US bond yields.
  • US Bitcoin funds also recorded net outflows of around $450.3 million in the 15 September session, coinciding with the continued effect of the stalling of the CLARITY Act, which keeps institutional liquidity and regulatory expectations among the most prominent factors influencing the market.

Today’s Economic Data (GMT+3 / KSA time)

• From the United Kingdom, Interest Rate Decision issued by the Bank of England 14:00
• From the United States of America, Initial Unemployment Benefit Claims 15:30
• From the United States of America, Building Permits (August) 15:30
• From the United States of America, Housing Starts (August) 15:30

GOLD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 4,313.07
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 4,316.56
• Targets: 4,356.05 then 4,391.20
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 4,282.77
• Targets: 4,248.58 then 4,215.85
• Note: Gold is still under selling pressure and is trading below the main moving average. A break above 4,316.56 supports an extension of the upward correction, while a break below 4,282.77 makes a resumption of the downward trend toward the next support levels more likely.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 98.19
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 100.00
• Targets: 101.66 then 103.56
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 97.80
• Targets: 95.95 then 94.18
• Note: Oil is moving under selling pressure after losing the main moving averages. A break above 100.00 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 97.80 makes a continuation of the decline toward the next support levels more likely.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.14748
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.14847
• Targets: 1.15127 then 1.15479
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.14525
• Targets: 1.14182 then 1.13889
• Note: The euro is moving below the main moving averages with selling pressure continuing. A break above 1.14847 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 1.14525 makes a resumption of the decline toward the next support levels more likely.

GBPUSD

Trend: Bearish

Timeframe: 30 minutes

Current price: 1.33899

First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.34025

Targets: 1.34354 then 1.34718

Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.33662

Targets: 1.33308 then 1.32969

Note: The pound is still under selling pressure and is trading below the main moving averages. A break above 1.34025 supports an extension of the upward correction, while a break below 1.33662 restores selling pressure and opens the way for a continuation of the decline.

NAS 100

Trend: Bearish

Timeframe: 30 minutes

Current price: 29,149.59

First scenario: Buy on a break above 29,267.82

Targets: 29,400.58 then 29,525.78

Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 28,974.70

Targets: 28,806.73 then 28,596.96

Note: The index is still under selling pressure and is trading below the main moving average. A break above 29,267.82 supports an extension of the upward correction, while a break below 28,974.70 makes a resumption of the downward trend more likely.