Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

• Key Headlines:
• The dollar steadies near 100.2 after gains exceeding 1% last week, with remarks from Federal Reserve officials awaited.
• Markets continue to assess the probabilities of a further rate hike after the first US increase in three years.
• Gold holds trading above $4,350, benefiting from lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns.
• Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran are pressuring energy prices and raising hopes of a restoration of normal flows.
• Brent crude is trading near $102 and West Texas near $98 after several sessions of decline.
• Bitcoin holds a weekly close above the 50-week moving average, with institutional demand and liquidity continuing to be monitored.

Fundamental Analysis

• The Dollar and Monetary Policy
  • The dollar index steadied near the 100.2 level on Monday after the gains it achieved last week, with investors awaiting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve officials to obtain fresh signals regarding the next step in monetary policy.
  • The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the first time in three years, while its chairman Kevin Warsh affirmed the continued commitment to controlling inflation and the possibility of needing an additional increase before the end of the year.
  • Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said that inflation is still far too high and that price pressures have extended beyond the oil price shock, which keeps the probabilities of further tightening in place.
  • On the other hand, the decline in oil prices contributed to easing some inflation concerns, while markets are awaiting the remarks of Austan Goolsbee today and John Williams on Tuesday to assess the extent of agreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the need to raise interest rates again.

• Gold:
  • Gold held trading above $4,350 per ounce on Monday after gains that lasted for several sessions, benefiting from lower oil prices and easing concerns over the continued rise in energy-related inflation.
  • The retreat in oil gives gold some support by reducing the likelihood of an acceleration in the pace of rate hikes, but the continuation of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials remains a pressure factor on the metal.
  • The movement of the dollar, bond yields and the remarks of Federal Reserve officials this week remain among the most important factors that will determine gold’s ability to hold its current gains.

• Oil:
  • Brent crude retreated to near $102 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate moved near $98, with prices continuing to decline amid growing hopes of diplomatic progress regarding the conflict in the Middle East.
  • President Donald Trump said that he may be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings, coinciding with the continued exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran through regional intermediaries.
  • The commander of US Central Command also indicated that oil and liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks reached their highest level in six months, which eased concerns over a supply shortage and pushed part of the risk premium lower.

• Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin held a weekly close above the 50-week moving average, which is a positive technical development, but a single close above this level is not sufficient on its own to confirm the start of a new upward trend.
  • At the same time, Bitcoin reserves outside the exchanges declined to around 123 thousand Bitcoin, compared with around 500 thousand Bitcoin in September 2021, which reflects a significant change in the structure of supply and the liquidity available outside the public markets.
  • Michael Saylor also sparked speculation about new purchases after his latest post, but no additional purchases have been disclosed so far, so institutional flows and the movement of the dollar and US yields remain among the most important factors to monitor during the week.

Today’s Economic Data (GMT+3 / KSA time)

• From Canada, Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem 18:05

GOLD

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 4,351.29
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 4,373.50
• Targets: 4,405.27 then 4,440.42
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 4,331.99
• Targets: 4,297.80 then 4,265.07
• Note: Gold is moving in a downward correction after the recent upward wave. A break above 4,373.50 supports a recovery of the upward momentum and a continuation of the move toward the next resistance levels, while a break below 4,331.99 makes an extension of the downward correction toward the next support levels more likely.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 95.61
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 97.00
• Targets: 98.72 then 100.62
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 94.87
• Targets: 93.02 then 91.25
• Note: Oil is moving under selling pressure and is trading below the main moving averages. A break above 97.00 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 94.87 makes a continuation of the decline toward the next support levels more likely.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.14705
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.14900
• Targets: 1.15179 then 1.15532
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.14578
• Targets: 1.14235 then 1.13942
• Note: The euro is moving below the main moving averages with selling pressure continuing. A break above 1.14900 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 1.14578 makes a resumption of the decline toward the next support levels more likely.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.33727
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.33976
• Targets: 1.34305 then 1.34669
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.33613
• Targets: 1.33259 then 1.32920
• Note: The pound is still under selling pressure and is trading below the main moving averages. A break above 1.33976 supports an extension of the upward correction, while a break below 1.33613 restores selling pressure and opens the way for a continuation of the decline.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 29,815.82
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 29,905.47
• Targets: 30,038.22 then 30,163.42
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 29,612.34
• Targets: 29,444.38 then 29,234.61
• Note: The index is moving with clear upward momentum and is trading above the main moving averages. A break above 29,905.47 supports a continuation of the advance toward the next resistance levels, while a break below 29,612.34 makes the start of a downward correction more likely.