Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

• Key Headlines:
  • The dollar steadies near 100.5 at its highest levels in eight weeks, with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials continuing.
  • Markets are pricing a probability of around 54% for a further US rate hike during the October meeting.
  • Gold is trading below $4,350 with the pressure of rate hike expectations continuing despite the decline in oil prices.
  • Progress in the US-Iranian talks is raising hopes of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and easing inflation concerns.
  • Brent crude is trading near $98 and West Texas near $89 with losses continuing for the sixth session.
  • Bitcoin is trading near $86 thousand after a strong upward wave supported by ETF flows and the liquidation of short positions.

Fundamental Analysis

• The Dollar and Monetary Policy
  • The dollar index steadied near the 100.5 level on Wednesday, holding its highest levels in around eight weeks, with the continuation of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials supporting expectations of a further interest rate increase this year.
  • Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin warned that the inflationary shocks may take time to fade and that price pressures may become more entrenched, while Susan Collins of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank affirmed that she supported the rate hike last week because of concerns over inflation remaining above the 2% target.
  • Market pricing currently points to a probability approaching 54% for a further rate hike in October, which keeps the dollar supported despite the clear decline in oil prices during the recent sessions.
  • On the other hand, the progress in the US-Iranian talks and the retreat in oil contributed to easing inflation concerns, which may limit the need for further tightening if energy prices continue to decline during the coming period.

• Gold:
  • Gold traded below the $4,350 per ounce level on Wednesday, with the continuation of the pressure resulting from the remarks of Federal Reserve officials and expectations of the possibility of a further rate hike in October.
  • On the other hand, the retreat in oil prices provides some support for the metal by easing inflationary pressures, while long-term investment demand is continuing, with China’s gold imports moving past 1,000 tonnes through to August, exceeding the entire total of 2025 imports.
  • Gold’s direction remains tied mainly to the movement of the dollar, yields and interest rate expectations, where a continued decline in oil could ease part of the current pressures on the metal.

• Oil:
  • Brent crude retreated to near $98 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell below $90 to near $89, with prices continuing their losses for the sixth consecutive session.
  • The decline came after President Donald Trump described the talks with the Iranian envoys as positive, while Tehran indicated its readiness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases its military pressure and lifts the blockade on Iranian ports.
  • Saudi Arabia is also working to restore oil exports through the East-West pipeline during the coming days, which could bring back one of the most important alternative routes to the Strait of Hormuz and ease concerns related to supplies.

• Bitcoin
  • Bitcoin traded near $86 thousand after briefly moving past the $87 thousand level, recording its highest levels since January 2026, with strong support from institutional flows and the liquidation of short positions.
  • Flows into US spot Bitcoin funds amounted to around $2 billion, coinciding with a rise in open positions in perpetual futures to close to $160 billion.
  • The upward wave also led to the liquidation of around $920 million of short positions during one of the rallies, while the liquidations of short positions over 24 hours moved past around $612 million.
  • This reflects strong momentum in the market, but the significant rise in open positions and leverage may also increase the severity of volatility if a wave of profit-taking begins after the recent advance.

Today’s Economic Data (GMT+3 / KSA time)

• From the United States of America, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index 16:45
• From the United States of America, Services Purchasing Managers’ Index 16:45
• From the United States of America, US Crude Oil Inventories 17:30

GOLD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 4,327.82
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 4,357.57
• Targets: 4,389.34 then 4,424.49
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 4,316.06
• Targets: 4,281.88 then 4,249.14
• Note: Gold is moving under selling pressure and is trading below the main moving averages. A break above 4,357.57 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 4,316.06 makes a continuation of the decline toward the next support levels more likely.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 91.07
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 92.22
• Targets: 93.93 then 95.84
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 90.08
• Targets: 88.23 then 86.46
• Note: Oil is moving in a clear downward trend and is trading below the main moving averages. A break above 92.22 supports an extension of the upward correction, while a break below 90.08 makes a resumption of the decline toward the next support levels more likely.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.14241
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.14473
• Targets: 1.14752 then 1.15105
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.14151
• Targets: 1.13808 then 1.13515
• Note: The euro is moving in a clear downward trend and is trading below the main moving averages. A break above 1.14473 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 1.14151 makes a continuation of selling pressure toward the next support levels more likely.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.33113
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.33338
• Targets: 1.33667 then 1.34031
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.32975
• Targets: 1.32621 then 1.32282
• Note: The pound is still under selling pressure and is trading below the main moving averages. A break above 1.33338 supports an extension of the upward correction, while a break below 1.32975 makes a continuation of the decline toward the next support levels more likely.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 30,758.83
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 30,847.89
• Targets: 30,980.64 then 31,105.85
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 30,584.43
• Targets: 30,416.46 then 30,206.70
• Note: The index is moving with strong upward momentum and is settling close to the recent highs. A break above 30,847.89 supports a continuation of the advance toward the next resistance levels, while a break below 30,584.43 makes the start of a downward correction more likely.