Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic Insights

• Key Headlines:
• The dollar rises to near 101.5 and approaches its highest levels since April 2025 amid the continued rise in US bond yields.
• The US PCE data came in below expectations and lowered the probability of a rate hike in October to around 38%.
• The yields on 10-year and 30-year US bonds are moving near 5.3% and 5.64% and remain a pressure factor on gold.
• Gold retreats to near $4,150 despite the weaker-than-expected US inflation data.
• Brent crude is trading near $97 and West Texas near $89 with oil flows from the Middle East improving.
• Bitcoin faces weakness in spot demand and speculation despite holding a number of key technical averages.

Fundamental Analysis

• The Dollar and Monetary Policy
  • The dollar index rose to near 101.5 on Thursday, approaching its highest levels since April 2025, with US Treasury yields continuing to rise and concerns that the inflationary pressures related to energy may persist for a longer period.
  • The yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds traded near 5.3% and 5.64% respectively, elevated levels the markets have not seen since 2002, which maintains the appeal of the dollar and increases the pressure on non-yielding assets.
  • On the other hand, the US inflation data came in below expectations, as the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in August against expectations of 0.4%, while the core index rose 0.2% against expectations of 0.3%, and headline annual inflation came in at 3.4%.
  • The data pushed markets to lower the probability of a US rate hike in October to around 38%, compared with around 51% before the release of the PCE report, which partially eased the hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve.
  • Attention turns today to the unemployment benefit claims and the US manufacturing sector data, ahead of the jobs report for September on Friday, which will be important in determining the next direction for interest rate expectations.

• Gold:
  • Gold retreated to near $4,150 per ounce on Thursday after giving up the previous session’s gains, despite the US inflation data coming in weaker than expected and lowering the probabilities of a rate hike in October.
  • The main pressure comes from the rise in Treasury yields to historic levels and the strength of the dollar, since the rise in yields increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, which offers no periodic return.
  • On the other hand, the decline in the probability of a rate hike to around 38% provides some support for the metal, and therefore gold’s movement will remain closely tied to the labour market data and the direction of the dollar and yields during the coming sessions.

• Oil:
  • Brent crude retreated to near $97 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell to around $89, with a clear improvement in energy flows from the Middle East and part of the concerns related to supplies easing.
  • Estimates point to a rise in flows through the Strait of Hormuz to around 13.2 million barrels per day, coinciding with Saudi Arabia restoring around half of the East-West pipeline’s capacity, which helped increase the quantities available in the market.
  • At the same time, the Iranian government said that it had received a US proposal regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but the absence of a permanent agreement so far keeps the geopolitical risk premium in place.
  • Markets are also awaiting the OPEC+ meeting at the end of this week, where expectations point to production quotas for November being kept unchanged.

• Bitcoin
  • The Bitcoin data shows a clear decline in demand during the recent period, as spot demand fell by around 170 thousand Bitcoin over 30 days despite the rise in the price.
  • Speculative demand in futures also fell by around 90%, from close to 164 thousand Bitcoin in mid-September to around 16 thousand Bitcoin by the end of the month, which points to a significant decline in leverage activity.
  • On the other hand, Bitcoin managed to move past the 50-week moving average and a number of key technical averages, with the area between $77 thousand and $83 thousand remaining important for maintaining the current structure.
  • Should it continue to hold above this area, the $93,500–$100,000 levels stand out as potential upside zones, while losing the main support areas could increase the risks of a correction, especially if the strength of the dollar and US yields returns.

Today’s Economic Data (GMT+3 / KSA time)

• From China, Holiday, National Day all day
• From the United States of America, Unemployment Claims Benefits 15:30
• From the United States of America, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (September) 16:45
• From the United States of America, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) (September) 17:00
• From the United States of America, Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 23:30

GOLD

• Trend: Bearish with an upward correction
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 4,187.68
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 4,203.88
• Targets: 4,235.65 then 4,270.80
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 4,162.36
• Targets: 4,128.18 then 4,095.44
• Note: Gold is moving within a downward trend with an upward corrective move emerging from the support area, and the price is trading close to the resistance area and the main moving average. A break above 4,203.88 supports a continuation of the upward correction toward the next resistance levels, while a break below 4,162.36 makes a return of selling pressure toward the next support levels more likely.

CRUDE OIL

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 90.69
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 91.73
• Targets: 93.44 then 95.35
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 89.59
• Targets: 87.74 then 85.97
• Note: Oil is moving in a downward trend and is trading below the main moving averages, with a limited rebound from the current support area. A break above 91.73 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 89.59 makes a continuation of selling pressure toward the next support levels more likely.

EURUSD

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.13181
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.13385
• Targets: 1.13664 then 1.14017
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.13063
• Targets: 1.12720 then 1.12427
• Note: The euro is moving in a downward trend and is trading below the main moving averages, with the price reaching the current support area. A break above 1.13385 supports a shift in the movement toward an upward correction, while a break below 1.13063 makes a continuation of the downward trend toward the next support levels more likely.

GBPUSD

• Trend: Sideways with a downward bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.32500
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 1.32713
• Targets: 1.33042 then 1.33406
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 1.32350
• Targets: 1.31996 then 1.31657
• Note: The pound is moving within a sideways range with a downward bias, with the price retreating toward the moving averages and the current support area. A break above 1.32713 supports a shift in the movement toward the upside and targeting the next resistance levels, while a break below 1.32350 makes a return of selling pressure toward the next support levels more likely.

NAS 100

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 30,856.23
• First scenario: Buy on a break above 30,946.11
• Targets: 31,078.86 then 31,204.07
• Alternative scenario: Sell on a break below 30,682.65
• Targets: 30,514.68 then 30,304.92
• Note: The index is moving in an upward trend and is trading above the main moving averages after a strong upward wave, with the price arriving close to the current resistance. A break above 30,946.11 supports a continuation of the upward move toward the next resistance levels, while a break below 30,682.65 makes it more likely that the price enters a corrective move toward the next support levels.