Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar is heading toward a third consecutive weekly loss amid declining safe-haven demand.
• Growing optimism over a potential U.S.–Iran agreement is exerting downward pressure on the dollar.
• Gold is approaching a fourth consecutive week of gains.
• Oil is falling sharply as inflation concerns ease.
• Expectations for a more hawkish U.S. monetary policy stance have diminished.
• Bitcoin is maintaining its bullish momentum above key levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Sideways / Range-bound
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,794
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 4,829
• Targets: 4,860, then 4,895
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 4,762
• Targets: 4,728, then 4,695
• Note: The market is trading within a consolidation range, and a breakout will be the key determinant of the next directional move.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Corrective bullish move within a broader downtrend
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 93.09
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 95.43
• Targets: 97.15, then 99.05
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 92.09
• Targets: 90.24, then 88.47
• Note: The current move reflects an upward correction, but the broader trend remains bearish.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Range-bound with a bearish bias
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1780
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1798
• Targets: 1.1826, then 1.1861
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.1757
• Targets: 1.1722, then 1.1689
• Note: There is a clear loss of bullish momentum, with price action shifting into a sideways range with a downside bias.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Corrective downtrend
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3518
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.3554
• Targets: 1.3586, then 1.3623
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 1.3503
• Targets: 1.3468, then 1.3434
• Note: A prior bullish structure has been broken, with sellers currently in control of price action.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Uptrend with consolidation
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 26,309
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 26,381
• Targets: 26,461, then 26,549
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a breakdown below 26,215
• Targets: 26,129, then 26,047
• Note: The broader trend remains bullish, but the market has entered a consolidation phase following a sharp advance.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

United States

• No major economic data releases scheduled for today.

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized above the 98 level on Friday, but remains on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, as demand for the currency as a safe-haven asset has weakened amid improving expectations for a resolution to the conflict between the United States and Iran.
• The decline followed statements by Donald Trump indicating that Tehran may have agreed to conditions involving the abandonment of its nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although these claims have not yet been confirmed by Iranian authorities.
• A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was also announced, reinforcing prospects for de-escalation and supporting the potential resumption of negotiations in the coming period.
• Despite this optimism, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade, keeping markets on alert for any unexpected developments.

• On the monetary policy front, the decline in oil prices has helped ease inflationary pressures, leading to a reduction in hawkish interest rate expectations.
• This shift is driven by:

• Lower energy prices
• Easing geopolitical risks
• Moderating inflationary pressures
• Reduced likelihood of further monetary tightening

• Federal Reserve officials have also indicated that the current environment of uncertainty warrants a cautious approach to policy guidance, while expectations for interest rate cuts over the longer term remain intact.

• Gold:

• Gold prices stabilized near $4,800 per ounce, heading toward a fourth consecutive week of gains.
• This performance is driven by:

• U.S. dollar weakness
• Improving political outlook

• Easing inflationary pressures
• Stabilization in bond yields

• Despite this positive momentum, gold remains sensitive to any sudden shifts in the trajectory of negotiations.

• Oil:

•Oil prices have declined, with:

• Brent crude trading near $98 per barrel

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near $89 per barrel

This pullback is driven by:

• Optimism about the potential for a diplomatic agreement
• Reduced concerns over supply shortages
• Easing inflationary pressures
• A reassessment of market expectations

• Despite this, the market remains vulnerable to volatility amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin continued to consolidate above the $74,500 level with a bullish bias.
• This price action indicates:

• Continued liquidity inflows

• Improving risk appetite
• Sustained positive momentum

• If the current trend persists, Bitcoin could target higher levels near $75,000.