Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar rises again, supported by safe-haven demand.
• Military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz rekindles market tensions.
• Gold declines under pressure from inflation and rising oil prices.
• Oil surges as supply risks return.
• Growing expectations of global monetary policy tightening.
• Bitcoin enters a weakening phase after losing momentum.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: sideways bias with a bearish tilt
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 4,786
• Bullish scenario: buy on a breakout above 4,823
• Targets: 4,854 then 4,889
• Alternative scenario: sell on a break below 4,756
• Targets: 4,722 then 4,689
• Note: Gold is trading within a range-bound structure, with a bearish bias following its failure to sustain levels above recent highs.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: strong bearish move with corrective pullbacks
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 87.53
• Bullish scenario: buy on a breakout above 89.73
• Targets: 91.45 then 93.35
• Alternative scenario: sell on a break below 86.40
• Targets: 84.55 then 82.78
• Note: The sharp downtrend remains dominant, and any upward movement is currently viewed as a corrective rebound within the broader bearish structure.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: corrective downtrend
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.1757
• Bullish scenario: buy on a breakout above 1.1773
• Targets: 1.1801 then 1.1837
• Alternative scenario: sell on a break below 1.1732
• Targets: 1.1698 then 1.1665
• Note: The short-term trend remains bearish, with only weak and limited rebound attempts.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 1.3489
• Bullish scenario: buy on a breakout above 1.3518
• Targets: 1.3551 then 1.3588
• Alternative scenario: sell on a break below 1.3468
• Targets: 1.3433 then 1.3399
• Note: Clear selling pressure persists following repeated failures to hold above recent highs.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: range-bound following a rally
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current price: 26,490
• Bullish scenario: buy on a breakout above 26,593
• Targets: 26,673 then 26,761
• Bearish scenario: sell on a break below 26,426
• Targets: 26,341 then 26,259
• Note: The market has lost momentum after a strong upward move and is now entering a distribution phase.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

Canada:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) / March – 15:30

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index rose to around 98.3 on Monday, recovering part of its recent losses, supported by renewed demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• This move followed statements by Donald Trump, who said that the U.S. Navy had targeted an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman and seized it after it ignored orders to stop while exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
• In response, Tehran escalated its stance, targeting vessels in the region and reaffirming its control over the strait, describing the U.S. blockade as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
• Despite ongoing discussions about the possibility of resuming negotiations in Pakistan, the likelihood of reaching an agreement remains low, bringing a strong wave of uncertainty back to global markets.

• On the monetary policy side, the ongoing conflict has triggered an energy-driven shock that is significantly reshaping market expectations.

• This shift is being fueled by:

• Higher oil prices
• Mounting inflationary pressures
• Intensifying geopolitical risks
• Reduced prospects for interest rate cuts

• Markets now anticipate that the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates steady for an extended period, with rising odds of further tightening should inflationary pressures persist.

• Gold:

• Gold prices fell below $4,800 per ounce, retreating from their recent gains.
• This weakness is driven by several factors:

• Higher oil prices
• Rising inflation concerns
• Diminished expectations for interest rate cuts
• A stronger U.S. dollar

• Although gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, the current environment of elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy continues to weigh on its performance.

• Oil:

• Oil prices have moved sharply higher, with:

• Brent crude trading near $95 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate hovering around $88 per barrel

• The advance is being driven by:

• Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
• Attacks on ships and increasing threats to maritime routes.
• Heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions
• Ongoing constraints on oil flows.

• Collectively, these factors are reinforcing fears of a renewed shock to the global energy market.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin has pulled back from the $78,400 level, stabilizing somewhat around key support zones.
• This price action reflects:

• Fading upside momentum
• Thinner liquidity
• Heightened sensitivity to news and macro developments
• Inability to maintain a foothold above $73,500

• Taken together, these signals indicate the market is entering a consolidation phase, with a higher likelihood of near-term volatility or corrective movement.