Daily Market Analysis

  

Latest Economic Insights

 

Top headlines:

• The U.S. dollar remains stable ahead of the anticipated Federal Reserve decision.•
• Markets are awaiting the latest meeting led by Jerome Powell.
• The ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to pressure markets and drive inflation higher.
• Gold declines under the weight of elevated interest rates and persistent inflationary risks.
• Oil holds at elevated levels, supported by supply shortages.
• Bitcoin enters a weakening phase after breaking key support levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for today is proposed, and the probability of this scenario occurring according to technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario occurring becomes between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and immediately the alternative scenario is activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for a trader’s decision, but rather a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on the principles of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 4,588
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 4,614
• Targets: 4,645, then 4,681
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 4,572
• Targets: 4,538, then 4,505
• Note: Downside momentum is likely to persist following a decisive breakdown, with rebounds expected to remain weak and short-lived.

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CRUDE OIL

 

• Trend: Bullish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 99.49
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 101.45
• Targets: 103.17, then 105.07
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 98.12
• Targets: 96.27, then 94.50
• Note: The broader trend remains upward, though price action is currently consolidating within a range ahead of a potential continuation move.

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EURUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.1696
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 1.1723
• Targets: 1.1751, then 1.1786
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.1691
• Targets: 1.1657, then 1.1624
• Note: Selling pressure remains dominant, with continued failure to establish a higher low, indicating weakness in any corrective upward moves.

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GBPUSD

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 1.3496
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a break above 1.3531
• Targets: 1.3564, then 1.3600
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 1.3481
• Targets: 1.3445, then 1.3411
• Note: A clear breakdown below support reinforces the likelihood of continued downside momentum.

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NAS100

 

• Trend: Bearish
• Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Current Price: 27,155
• Primary Scenario: Buy on a breakout above 27,221
• Targets: 27,301, then 27,389
• Alternative Scenario: Sell on a break below 27,055
• Targets: 26,969, then 26,887
• Note: The broader trend remains downward, with any upward movement likely to be corrective and limited in scope.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Canada:
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 16:45

From the United States:
Crude Oil Inventories – 17:30
Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21:00
FOMC Press Conference – 21:30

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Fundamental Analysis

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• The U.S. Dollar and Monetary Policy:

• The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized near the 98.6 level on Wednesday, following notable volatility earlier in the week, as markets await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. This meeting is expected to be the last under the leadership of Jerome Powell before the end of his term.
• Markets are adopting a cautious stance, with broad expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, as policymakers continue to assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation and growth.
• On the geopolitical front, tensions persist despite ongoing diplomatic efforts:

• Iran is demanding the lifting of the maritime blockade
• The United States is exerting pressure through sanctions
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues
• Approximately 20% of global oil supplies have been disrupted

• These developments have intensified inflationary pressures and prompted markets to reprice expectations for monetary policy.

• Markets are increasingly factoring in a “higher-for-longer” interest rate outlook, supported by several underlying drivers:

• Elevated energy costs
• Persistent geopolitical risks
• Mounting inflationary pressures
• Limited visibility on political resolutions

• At the same time, policy decisions from key global central banks—including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada—are set to be pivotal in determining market direction in the near term.

• Gold:

• Gold prices declined below the $4,600 per ounce level, following a notable drop in the previous session.
• This downturn is primarily driven by:

• A stronger U.S. dollar
• Rising bond yields
• Reduced expectations for interest rate cuts
• Intensifying inflationary pressures

• Although geopolitical risks remain elevated, the prevailing higher-for-longer rate environment continues to exert the strongest downward pressure on gold.

• Oil:

• Oil prices remained elevated, with:

• Brent Crude trading near $111 per barrel
• West Texas Intermediate hovering around $99 per barrel

• This resilience is supported by several factors:

• Ongoing supply disruptions
• An unexpected draw in U.S. crude inventories
• Shipping constraints through the Strait of Hormuz
• Escalating geopolitical risks

• Additionally, the decline in U.S. inventories by 1.79 million barrels has reinforced the bullish momentum in oil markets.

Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin fell below the $78,500 level, as the market entered a phase of heightened volatility.
• This suggests:

• Fading bullish momentum
• Increasing selling pressure
• Difficulty sustaining levels above $75,500
• A wait-and-see stance for new market catalysts